Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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626 FXUS64 KHUN 180438 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1138 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 923 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 There are still some radar returns showing up this evening for areas of light rain. This will continue overnight under overcast skies which will only allow low temps to drop into the low to mid 60s areawide. There is potential for dense fog to develop tonight into tomorrow morning with the moist airmass in place and light winds but confidence remains low overall with aforementioned cloud cover in place. Chances for fog remain higher across eastern zones. Early tomorrow morning (5 AM to 7 AM) hi-res models are picking up on an area of storms moving into northwest Alabama from MS and SPC has included a marginal risk for storms right up against the MS/AL border. There remains instability in place overnight between 500-1000 J/kg along with 35-45 kts of 0-6 km shear. This could allow for one or two cells to remain strong as they enter into the NW corner of AL with wind and hail being the main concerns. This area of storms is expected to weaken through mid- morning as it progressed eastward across northern AL. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Shower/storm chances will be highest during the day on Saturday as the upper trough axis pivots across the local area. SPC has placed the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe storms on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon. There may be a few hours where there is a favorable overlap between instability and shear, although the best shear will be displaced to our south. Marginally severe wind and hail will be the primary concern with these storms with CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, but still a low confidence forecast depending on the nature of convection father to our south that could block us from better moisture advection, much like today. Something to be aware of, especially if spending time outdoors. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s/lower 80s with light westerly/northwesterly winds. This activity should come to an end from west to east tomorrow night. Dense fog may become a threat once again tomorrow night with light winds and clearing skies. Upper ridging will settle over the local area for the remainder of the short term forecast, resulting in dry and warm conditions. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s Sunday and Monday with overnight lows in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Dry and warm conditions will continue into Tuesday, and thanks to a flow rounding a surface ridge along the east coast. After a mild night with lows in the lower 60s, highs on Monday should rise into the mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. This trend should continue on Tuesday with highs nearing 90 degrees in a few places. Lows in the mid 60s Mon night should range in the upper 60s to near 70 Tue night. A storm system forecast to form over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains over the weekend will head to the NE, reaching the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A cold front trailing south of it will move across the area on Wed. Moisture convergence and lift preceding it will return medium chances (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms beginning Tue night. Unsettled weather with scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into Thursday. Overall storm strength should remain "general" with a risk of strong outflow wind gusts, heavy downpours, and sudden and/or frequent lightning. Even with more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures on Wed/Thu should range in the mid/upper 80s, and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Calm or very light winds are in place at the terminals at this time. Cloud cover is in place and should bcome thicker after 8Z/9Z. This should keep fog from becoming dense. However, with a boundary in place near the terminals helping focus higher moisture in the boundary layer, some MVFR to IFR fog could occur through 8Z at KMSL and 9Z at KHSV. Fog should improve but MVFR VSBYS or CIGS will likely remain in place towards daybreak. A good chance of -TSRA are expected to develop between 8Z and 13Z at both terminals, so a tempo group for -TSRA was included with IFR VSBYS. A more predominant period of -SHRA and VCTS is expected after 15Z at both terminals with a pernotheriod of heavier TSRA between 17Z and 22Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KG SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...KTW