Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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325 FXUS64 KHUN 210538 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1238 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 853 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure remains layered across the mid/southern Atlantic states this Mon evening, with current temp trends mainly in the 70s/near 70F. With a light return flow pattern in place, temps into early Tue again look to remain seasonably warm, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 70s, under mostly clear skies. Some light fog is again possible in the more fog prone sheltered/valley areas, but overall coverage should be fairly sparse. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Dry weather will continue through much of the short term period as high pressure to our east keeps lower humidity in place while also reinforcing southerly flow as upper ridging builds to our west. Daily highs will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s through Thursday, while overnight lows fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Will definitely feel like summer and most locations will likely reach 90 degrees for the first time this year either Tuesday or Wednesday. A slow moving cold front will slowly approach the area on Thursday, and will result in lower-end chances (20-40%) for showers/storms (favoring northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee) during the afternoon. Trends favor most of the area remaining dry through Thursday afternoon, with highs once again in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A mid/upper shortwave pivoting from the Ozarks into the Mid SOuth will finally push the aforementioned front into portions of the Tennessee Valley by late Thursday night into Friday and subsequently bring medium to high (40-70%) chance for showers and storms to the area. General view of the storm environment would favor plenty of CAPE with sufficient shear to support at least a few organized strong storms, with gusty winds and hail (along with locally heavy downpours) being the main threats on Friday. We`ll remain in a fairly active pattern through most of the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend, with zonal low aloft allowing for additional shortwaves to traverse the region. Subsequently, medium chances (40-60%)for showers/storms will be present in the forecast both Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Variable winds around 4 knots are expected at both terminals after 6Z. This should keep VFR conditions in place, given current dewpoint depressions at the terminals and the expected increase in winds to around 4 knots. Otherwise, southerly winds are expected to become more established during the day today between 5 and 10 knots gusting to between 10 and 15 knots after 15Z. We should lose the wind gusts tonight, as winds remain between 5 and 10 knots. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...KTW