086
FXUS64 KHUN 130537
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 941 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Some thin high cloud cover continues to move east southeast
aloft, as an upper level trough axis moves east tonight. However,
in the lower levels, models are hinting that a weak area of low
pressure around 850 mb develops over central MS overnight. This
pulls fairly moist boundary layer moisture and 850 mb moisture
northward and back west into locations east of the I-65 corridor
overnight. This should bring cloud cover back into those areas. Expect
this cloud cover to be roughly between 6000 and 8000 feet. Confidence
in mostly cloudy conditions spreading west of the I-65 corridor
is very low. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions at
best in those locations along with light or calm winds.

Dewpoints have risen quite a bit already this evening, mainly due
to low level moisture advection from the east off the Atlantic
coast. Likely will see dewpoints climb further overnight, as this
low level flow doesn`t change much. This and cloud cover will
likely keep lows from dropping into the mid 60s (maybe even upper
60s) in portions of NE Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
Further west, lows will be slightly cooler, but not much given
expected moisture advection from the east. Lows in those areas
look to be able to drop into the lower 60s given the clear skies
and light winds expected. Thus, raised lows a bit to reflect this
thinking for tomorrow morning.

Patchy fog was added in portions of northern Alabama west of the
I-65 corridor. Some areas of fog could develop towards daybreak in
those areas as well, likely mainly in Lawrence, Franklin, and
into Cullman counties given current dewpoint depressions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A 5h ridge over the Desert Southwest is still modeled consistently
to migrate into the Gulf South and TN valley region through
Saturday. This will mean an incremental rise in temperatures each
day. Low level flow will still remain light and variable for the
most part during this period. Thus, not expecting the deep Gulf
moisture layer nearer the coast to reach the area before Saturday.
However, dew points will experience a slow uptick through the
period back into the 60s. For temperatures, expect highs to
increase from the upper 80s to around 90 Thursday, into the lower
90s Friday, and a few middle 90s Saturday. A strong capping
inversion will prevent any pulse convection from developing at
this point.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The long term forecast poses the question when will we see rain
and heat relief? Unfortunately the answer remains somewhat
uncertain. By Sunday night there will likely be ongoing convection
in the southern Gulf associated with a Gulf low somewhere near
the Yucatan. Models diverge on how far north both the Gulf
moisture and eventual rain associated with this feature will make
it. The GFS favors weakening ridging and a more northward track
of gulf moisture bringing us rain and clouds for the start of the
work week. The Euro favors stronger ridging suppressing all rain
chances and yielding additional days in the high 90s. For this
issuance, kept low rain chances in through the long term with
cloudy conditions limiting temps to the low 90s. As this period
moves closer in time, guidance will become more clear on when heat
relief and rain will arrive.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period at KMSL.
Some fog could develop at KMSL between 10Z and 12Z dropping VSBYS
at times during that period into the MVFR realm. A bit more cloud
cover (VFR) should keep fog from forming at KHSV given current
dewpoint depression.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KTW