Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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905 FXUS64 KHUN 090152 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 852 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 852 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Mostly clear skies prevail across the central TN Valley this Sat evening, although cloud cover will be spreading into the area from the NW overnight as an MCS develops across SE MO. As this upper wave translates more to the SE, isolated/scattered showers/tstms will begin to spread into parts of the area early Sun morning. Latest model suites suggest this oncoming precip will be on a weakening trend as it crosses into the area with any tstms likely being elevated in nature given the limited instability. Outflow from this activity may then serve as a focus mech for additional showers/tstms later in the day Sun. High pressure also continues to move east of the area, allowing for the development of a light return flow pattern. This should translate into seasonably warm temps later tonight, with lows falling into the upper 60s/near 70F for most spots. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A highly uncertain forecast is anticipated on Sunday. Around daybreak, a MCS will be arriving into the Tennessee Valley from the NW. Both timing and placement is uncertain at this time and will likely remain that way until the thunderstorms form later today. The good news is that any morning convection will be elevated and not expected to be severe. By the afternoon and early evening, a cold front moves through the area bringing some better forcing to initiate storms. Depending where the MCS moves through in the morning will determine the severe weather potential in the evening. Best guess is that a residual outflow boundary will be present near the TN River will be the focus of convective initiation. Any storms that do develop will have plenty of instability to work with, but little to no shear. Therefore, damaging winds will be the primary concern with any storm Sunday afternoon/evening. Storms come to an end shortly after sunset. Once the cold front passes through Sunday night, drier and cooler weather is forecast through the end of the short term period. Expect afternoon highs on Monday and Tuesday to top out in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Ridging in the central CONUS will set up at the end of the short term resulting in a very dry air mass remaining in place through the duration of the long term. While highs will gradually climb back up to the high 80s, dry air aloft will greatly suppress rain chances through the first half of the long term. Chances for rain in the second half of the long term remain uncertain. Global models indicate a possible split flow pattern through the end of the work week in the form of a trough splitting off into the Gulf. If the trough takes a more eastern track, this will favor low to medium rain chances for the second half of the long term. If the trough take a more southern track or struggles to form, this will likely keep us mostly dry through the duration long term. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 With high pressure moving east of the area, VFR conds will prevail into the daytime hrs Sun. Mid/high clouds though will begin to spread more into the area out of the NW during the early morning period. A weakening upper disturbance will also move SE into the area Sun morning, although the prob for any shra/tsra remains fairly low attm. A better chc for shra/tsra may then develop Sun afternoon and a PROB30 group has been added late in the period. Light/var winds will also become west around 5-7kt Sun morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...09