Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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192 FXUS64 KHUN 081433 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 933 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 933 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A decaying MCS continues to push eastward across AR/TN this morning with some leading showers attempting to enter into NW AL. CAM guidance suggests this entire complex should remain to our north as it dissipates. However, given some light returns popping up on radar this morning have added a very low chance (10%) of a shower the rest of this morning into the early afternoon. The one noticeable impact from this complex will be an increase in high clouds. Otherwise, most of the area remains dry today with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s will once again make for a nice Summer afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 By tonight, the SSW flow will restore a warm moist air mass with lows in the high 60s in place. Sunday looks to be our next chance for rain and storms however CAMs have yet to converge on a solution. Two periods of rain and storms appear possible. Early Sunday morning an additional shortwave will move through with an MCS likely going on to our NW. Models disagree on the southern extent and eventual dissipation of the MCS. A likely scenario seems the MCS will track just north of us with some shower and storm activity possible north of the TN river through mid morning. At a minimum, cloud cover will increase through the mid morning hours. Redevelopment of rain and storms looks possible Sunday afternoon into the evening with the passage of a cold front. Sunday afternoon storms will be highly contingent on the behavior and presence of any morning storms and cloud cover. If the MCS does track a little further south resulting in a higher coverage of clouds, rain, and storms, this would allow less time for the environment to rebound and decrease storm potential in the afternoon. If Sunday morning remains dry, CAMS indicate the potential for 2000-3000 J/KG of CAPE supporting a low end severe threat for the evening. Again this is a conditional threat however any storms that do develop will pose a risk for damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Come Monday, the passage of the cold front will leave a cooler air mass in place. Monday and Tuesday will see high temps in the low 80s with dewpoints remaining in the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Ridging in the central CONUS will set up at the end of the short term resulting in a very dry air mass remaining in place through the duration of the long term. While highs will gradually climb back up to the high 80s, dry air aloft will greatly suppress rain chances through the first half of the long term. Chances for rain in the second half of the long term remain uncertain. Global models indicate a possible split flow pattern through the end of the work week in the form of a trough splitting off into the Gulf. If the trough takes a more eastern track, this will favor low to medium rain chances for the second half of the long term. If the trough take a more southern track or struggles to form, this will likely keep us mostly dry through the duration long term. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Light winds and mostly clear skies will promote VFR conditions at both terminal for nearly the whole TAF period. Towards the end of the TAF period, a slightly lower ceiling will begin to build in from the north. Future TAF issuances will refine the details on this cloud deck and if it will pose any threat to VFR conditions via lower ceilings or increased rain and storm chances. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...RAD