826
FXUS63 KICT 271128
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures expected to remain seasonably mild to warm for much
of the week.

- Periodic rain chances forecast through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Analyzing water vapor satellite this morning, a number of shortwave
troughs are progressing eastward across the northern plains,
Midwest, and New England regions. Meanwhile, weak upper ridging
exists over the Great Basin. As a result, general northwesterly
upper flow is present over the central plains. At the surface, a
frontal boundary has pushed moisture out of the forecast area, and
warm but dry conditions are expected for today as a result. Later
tonight into early Tuesday morning a subtle mid-level baroclinic
zone will be draped over Kansas. With apparent mid-level moisture
transport as well as meager instability (less than 500 J/kg) above
700 mb, a few isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two are
progged to develop across portions of central and south-central
Kansas. Rain chances should come to an end later Tuesday morning as
the LLJ weakens.

For the remainder of the week, ripples in weak upper level zonal
flow across the central plains are expected to skate over the
region. This along with rich gulf moisture streaming northward and
setting up shop across the region. As a result, periodic storm
chances are anticipated throughout much of the week. Analyzing
the upcoming pattern is fairly difficult as global models tend
to have a tough time resolving subtle features; therefore, the
forecast for the next week is fairly uncertain. While multiple
opportunities for showers and storms exist this week, we will
definitely emphasize not to expect widespread, meaningful
rainfall this wee. However, with flow aloft so weak, we are NOT
expecting widespread severe weather; just a token strong to
marginally severe storm may be possible should sufficient
instability be in place.

So let`s break this down... Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, it
appears as though low to medium (20-40%) isolated storm chances
exist mainly west of I-135. This looks to be supported by the
combination of a weak upper wave passing over western Kansas as well
as possibly modest moisture transport nosing into a subtle mid-level
boundary created as a result of afternoon convection coming off of
the High Plains. Chances generally wane during the day on Wednesday,
but will gradually increase again late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as another shortwave trough skates across the region.
Storm chances during this time frame may be further supported by
sufficient elevated instability as well as some broad mid-
level WAA. Global models attempt to repeat this exact scenario
Thursday evening into Friday morning which will bring more rain
chances to the area. Just to reiterate, this is still fairly
uncertain taking into account global models have a difficult
time resolving subtle features like this. Rain chances look to
dwindle going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side for
today.

Still looking like high chances of VFR conditions today across
the entire area. The only thing to keep an eye on will be a
shower/storm or two developing along a weak warm front that is
expected to lift north into south central KS late this
afternoon. However, confidence is still too low to insert into
TAFs at this time. Nevertheless, KICT would be the most likely
to see a rouge storm if one would develop.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL