122
FXUS63 KICT 040021
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
721 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  through tonight over mainly the eastern half of Kansas.

- Additional thunderstorm chances Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- After a lull thunderstorm-wise Wednesday through Friday,
  periodic storm chances return Friday night through at least
  early next week.

- Seasonable to seasonably warm temperatures the next several
  days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

THIS AFTERNOON--TONIGHT...An MCV from this morning`s thunderstorm
complex that moved across western into south-central Kansas is
situated over central-eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, an amplified upper
shortwave is approaching from western Kansas. Forcing from these
features, along with some daytime heating and associated
destabilization, should support isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms through at least this evening over central and
eastern Kansas. Buoyancy and deep layer shear are modest at best, so
severe weather is not expected. Overnight...with a slight nocturnal
low-level jet increase, could see additional hit-or-miss
shower/storm activity bubble overnight over eastern Kansas, in
vicinity of the aforementioned upper forcing, as well as over
western and central Kansas ahead of another upper wave and
associated frontal zone approaching from the west. Severe weather is
also unlikely with this activity.

TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...The approaching upper wave and associated
weakening frontal zone oozing in from the west-northwest will be the
focus for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday, especially from mid-late
afternoon through the evening. Strong heating and rich low-level
moistening amidst steep lapse rates will support strong instability.
Coupled with marginal deep layer shear of 20-30 kts, thinking a few
strong to severe multi-cell and possible marginal supercell
thunderstorms are possible, capable of isolated large hail, damaging
downburst winds, and locally very heavy rainfall. Given the rich low-
level moisture and potential for decent low-level buoyancy, can`t
rule out a few landspout tornadoes as well. If coverage ends up
being greater than expected, activity could tend to grow upscale
into one or more loosely organized thunderstorm complexes Tuesday
evening over southeast Kansas, with a continued threat for wind and
heavy rain.

WEDNESDAY--FRIDAY...A relatively stable, post-frontal airmass is
slated to encompass the region mid to late this week, supporting
mostly dry conditions, lower dewpoints, and seasonable to seasonably
warm temperatures. A secondary frontal zone oozing in from the north
may support an isolated thunderstorm or two Wednesday evening, but
thinking these chances are fairly low and coverage will be sparse.

FRIDAY NIGHT--MONDAY...The upper flow turns more northwesterly to
westerly by early this weekend, with various subtle disturbances in
the upper flow. This will allow for returning moisture/instability,
along with increasing 850-650mb warm advection as an EML attempts to
advect in from the west-southwest. All this to say...there will be
off-and-on chances for thunderstorms starting Friday night, and
persisting into at least early next week. Seasonable upper flow with
a decent veering profile should support periodic strong to severe
storm chances, along with locally heavy rain. Stay tuned as details
are refined in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected through this TAF period
with light winds. There is a slight chance for some showers or a
brief thunderstorm between 02Z and 08Z tonight but this is
primarily expected near KCNU (if it occurs) and confidence is so
low, kept it out of the TAF at this time. There is also a
chance for some fog to develop in the KRSL and KGBD area tonight
but this is expected to be very patchy and may not affect the
terminals much if at all. This fog may also develop as ground
fog (MIFG) and not restrict visibility much if at all. Will AMD
if needed through the period if it occurs. After 17Z to 19Z
tomorrow, the chances for showers and thunderstorm will
increase. Areal coverage is very much in question so kept it out
of the TAF at this time. KGBD, KSLN, KHUT, KSLN and KICT are
the mostly likely terminals (20%) to get some thunderstorm
activity.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ELM