220
FXUS63 KICT 311859
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
159 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon/evening, especially
  across central and eastern KS

- Several showers/storm chances through the weekend and possibly
  into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

As of 130 PM, a rinse and repeat pattern was ongoing across the
Plains with multiple remnant MCVs spinning about. The two impacting
the weather locally are position across central KS and northeast OK.
To begin with, the MCV across northeast OK continues to rotate
showers/storms north and northwestward across portions of Labette,
Neosho, and Allen counties. The expectation is for the MCV to
gradually move east this evening, shunting the best rain chances
eastward. The second MCV across central KS has been relatively
benign thus far with mostly dry conditions. Latest visible satellite
imagery reveals a deepening cumulus field across central KS with
mixed-layer inhibition approaching zero. With the nearby MCV,
scattered convection is probable this afternoon from Barton and
Russell counties and points east. Effective shear remains meager,
therefore organize convection is not expected. That being said,
precipitable water values remain above 1.2" which supports heavy
rain. As diurnal cooling ensue this evening, convection should
decrease in coverage.

Like prior days, additional convection is expected this afternoon
across the High Plains with a gradual march eastward. Model guidance
is good agreement with any upscale growth across eastern CO/western
KS will tend to move more southeasterly overnight and into the best
low-level theta-e. Therefore, shower/storm chances are quite low
overnight area-wide.

The active pattern will continue through the weekend and possibly
into next week with weak perturbations translating across the Plains
atop a weakly to moderately unstable environment. Confidence is
increasing for the active pattern continuing into next weekend with
the potential for an amplified midlevel ridge axis sliding into the
Plains decreasing. This result would keep shower/storm chances going
and temperatures in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Similar to the past few days, widely scattered showers/storms
continue across the area. The highest concentration at the
moment is across far eastern KS and impacting CNU and will do so
through much of the afternoon. An additional batch of
showers/storms is forecast to develop in the vicinity of RSL
after 20Z and approach GBD and SLN by early evening. Confidence
is high enough with this batch to introduce a TEMPO group at
each of the 3 terminals. Otherwise, MVFR CIGS will gradually
lift this afternoon with VFR progged to prevail overnight. Later
outlooks will need to evaluate the fog potential towards dawn
Saturday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...BMB