693
FXUS63 KICT 150821
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
321 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering storm chances this morning, followed by a round of
  potentially severe storms from late afternoon through tonight.

- Trending hot for the weekend with temps in the upper 80s to 90
  degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Morning convection continues to trek east while slowly trying to
build to the south along an axis of 700mb warm moist advection.
Storms will continue to access 500 J/kg MUCAPE and marginal shear.
Shear will get slightly better toward dawn, but it appears
storms will outrun the instability thus not be cause for much
concern this morning. Can`t rule out a storm or two becoming
strong with pea to dime sized hail early this morning.
Otherwise, attention turns to this afternoon.

Not much change to the going forecast for severe potential today.
Convection will be possible along a cold front which is progged to
extend from eastern Nebraska through Central KS and into the TX Pan.
A sfc low is expected to set up near the OK Pan by mid afternoon,
the best chance for convective initiation is in the vicinity of
this feature SW of the CWA. Late afternoon into early evening
this sfc low will start to shift closer to the CWA while
attempting to sharpen a pseudo warm front across southern KS /
the KS-OK state line. Again, convergence here is also looking
rather bleak. Dew points into the low 60s will try and pool
across southern KS. A nearly uncapped environment is expected
with steep mid level lapse rates, 1500-3000 MLCAPE, and
50-60kts bulk shear. If a storm can get going early in the event
in southern KS, damaging winds and hail will be the main
concern, along with potential for storm splits given rather
straight hodograph. Overall 3Cape looks minuscule, but if a
storm can remain anchored along the boundary long enough a
tornado would be possible. Right movers will be crawling moving
east at only 8-14kts. Confidence on storms initiating early
afternoon is low.

The more likely scenario is storms will have an easier time
initiating SW of the CWA and grow upscale and eventually develop
into an MCS. The MCS would track east across southern
KS/northern OK through the evening/night. Contrary to any right
movers earlier in the day, the downshear corfidi vectors
suggest MCS propagation could range from 60-70kts. In this
scenario, damaging winds of 60-70mph would emerge as the main
concern this evening.

The SW corner of the CWA could see temperatures as warm as the mid
and upper 80s by this afternoon, with the remainder of the area
limited to the mid 70s.

Tomorrow looks a little complicated, if there is enough
recovery, there is potential for another sfc boundary to be
draped across southern KS which could again be a focus for
convection as a compact southern stream trough moves across
Southern Plains. Storms that can form across southeast KS could
be marginally severe. However, much of tomorrow`s activity will
be highly dependent on this evening/tonights MCS propagation
and resulting cold pool/outflow boundaries.

Ridging will build in Friday shutting off any remaining showers
and storms. Ridging looks to pan out over the area gaining
confidence in the warming trend into the upper 80s and low 90s
for the weekend. A Northern Plains trough will result in a cold
front moving through the forecast area late Saturday with
little fanfare. Zonal to slight ridging will remain overhead
into the start of next week, meanwhile a more pronounced
western trough will organize across the western CONUS. A few
progressive/compact impulses will eject out of the developing
western CONUS trough and move through the mean flow, resulting
in continued light POPs in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving into the
KRSL and KGBD terminals at this time. The thunderstorm activity
is rather isolated and short lived with this weak activity. As
such, kept -SHRA as predominate used a TEMPO group for the TSRA.
Do not feel the thunderstorm activity will amount to much. The
rest of the TAF looks to be rather quiet with a chance for some
isolated showers and thunderstorm in the KSLN, KHUT and KICT
area towards the 12Z time frame. Confidence in this activity is
very low and thus kept it out of the TAF for this TAF cycle.
After 18Z, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will come
around again. Areal coverage and intensity remain in question at
this time. Currently, highest confidence in this occurrence is
in the KHUT and KICT terminals at this time but too low for a
predominate/TEMPO group. Thus used a PROB30 at these terminals
where confidence is the highest. The remaining terminals also
have a chance for shower and thunderstorm activity but
confidence is too low for any particular hour to place in the
TAF on this forecast cycle.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...ELM