090
FXUS63 KICT 011741
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms will be possible over the region for
  tonight-Tuesday night

- Several rounds of storms could start causing some flooding
  problems for parts of the region from Sunday night-Tuesday
  night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Expecting storms to develop again over the high plains region
for mid-late afternoon. The storms should congeal into a line
of storms and spread eastward as low level jet/moisture
transport increases boosting the maintenance time for storms.
Therefore this activity will have a better chance of reaching
central/south central Kansas tonight, mainly affecting locations
west of I-135/I-35. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible with damaging winds as the main hazard.

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper level wave
approaching the northwest coastline early this morning. This system
will track eastward across the Rockies and eject into the northern
plains late Sunday afternoon. A cold front will then surge southward
across Nebraska into a very unstable airmass igniting thunderstorms.
The thunderstorms will likely grow upscale then transition into a
forward propagating MCS as low level jet/moisture transport
increases and feeds the complex of storms. Corfidi vectors suggests
a south/southeast movement of the MCS complex once a robust cold
pool develops. This looks to impact mainly northeastern Kansas
during the overnight hours, however parts of central/southeast
Kansas could be clipped by the complex of storms. Damaging winds and
torrential downpours would be the main risk. If this scenario
happens and a big outflow pushes well south then Monday`s setup
could be altered and stabilized during the day with chances of
storms diminished. Model trends for Tuesday`s upper wave have the
system moving through the northern plains region quicker than
previous model runs. Still seeing a decent signal for storms
developing along southeast moving frontal boundary for Tuesday
afternoon/night which could affect Kansas again. Some flooding
problems could arise during the Sunday night-Tuesday night period,
especially if same locations are affected by multiple rounds of
storms.

Meanwhile, long range models continue to show a pattern change with
upper northwest flow regime setting up over the central plains for
Wednesday-Friday. This would result in dry weather conditions for
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

MVFR CIGS continue to scatter across the region with VFR
conditions expected within the next hour at all sites except
CNU, which should be by 21Z. A stray shower/storm cannot be
ruled out this afternoon, especially along and west of
Interstate 135 but confidence is too low for a mention for now.
Better shower/storm chances arrive late this evening into
Sunday. Again, confidence is relatively low and have addressed
this potential with a 4 hour PROB30 window.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...BMB