265
FXUS63 KICT 132339
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures likely to continue through next week
  across the region

- Upper level pattern change could also bring chances of rain to
  the region next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Models continue to show a weak signal of warm air advection into a
700mb baroclinic zone with steep lapse rates/elevated instability
which could spark off some isolated showers/storms during the
morning hours of Saturday-Monday. Strong or severe storms are
not expected.

High confidence for warmer than normal temperatures to prevail along
with increasing humidity levels Monday-Friday period. Models
continue to show a well pronounced upper trough axis digging in over
the southwestern states and maintaining itself through next week
with a couple embedded short waves rotating through the upper flow
regime. This pattern change looks to bring decent chances of rain to
western Kansas early in the week with some of this activity possibly
shifting eastward into central Kansas. There is some uncertainty on
the timing of eastward shift of the upper trough axis and when
precipitation could spread into central and eastern Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Main aviation concern will be low clouds over southeast KS
starting late tonight.

Upper troughing continues across the Central/Northern High
Plains with what is left of Francine rotating across western
portions of the Tennessee Valley. Low clouds currently over MO
will slowly work west tonight and will likely reach KCNU around
09z and will continue through at least 16z. At this point
confidence is high in MVFR cigs with confidence starting to
increase we will see IFR levels at KCNU. If this trend
continues, will continue to lower cigs with later forecasts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL