Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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979 FXUS63 KICT 041732 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms developing over central Kansas this afternoon will propagate into southeast Kansas this evening. - After a lull thunderstorm-wise Wednesday through Friday, periodic storm chances return Friday night into Saturday. - Seasonably warm temperatures the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A shortwave trough moving into the Northern Rockies tonight is progged to sweep eastward across the Northern Plains today. The southern extension of the mid/upper trough will impact the Central Plains driving a frontal boundary southward across the area tonight. Low level flow is progged to back to an easterly direction across south central KS this afternoon as a weak trough axis bisects central Kansas. We continue to see stronger capping across southern Kansas but a rogue updraft or two may be possible this afternoon- evening as low level moisture increases late in the day. Better chances for scattered afternoon storms will be possible over our central Kansas counties late this afternoon and evening before propagating into southeast Kansas this evening and tonight as a cold front settles southward over the area and large-scale forcing for ascent increases with the approaching shortwave trough. The best support for nocturnal activity should shift east of our area by midnight. A moist and unstable airmass will likely support some multicell clusters with a damaging wind and large hail threat given relatively modest deep layer shear of 25 to 25 knots. Locally heavy rain will also be possible given PWATs above the 90th percentile (~1.75 inches) and deep warm layer cloud depths (~4000m) across mainly southeast Kansas. Wed-Fri...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated in the wake of the front with above normal temperatures and light winds expected across the area on Wednesday. The shortwave trough over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba on Wed is progged to dig across the Great Lakes area on Thursday sending another weak frontal boundary southward across the area. This will lead to subtle downward trend in temperatures on Thursday with seasonable highs in the 80s anticipated for most areas. The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across the western CONUS late in the week with northwest mid/upper flow prevailing downstream over the Central Plains. Our next chance for storms will arrive Friday night as a subtle shortwave trough approaches in northwest mid/upper flow. Sat-Mon...Showers and storms will be possible at the beginning of the period as we remain in northwest mid/upper flow. A large trough over the Great Lakes area will help drive a frontal boundary southward across the area late in the weekend with much cooler and drier air overspreading the area. With a stationary or slowly retrograding mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes area, we expect to see below normal temperatures into the beginning of next week with only small chances (20 percent) for precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Mixed flight conditions are anticipated through the TAF period at all terminals. Showers and storms making their way through central KS will continue to push from west to east and impact KRSL and KGBD over the next few hours. The primary impacts from these will be large hail, gusty winds and brief lowering of vsbys to IFR in the strongest storms. It remains to be seen whether these showers and storms make it to the south central KS terminals, so mention was left out of KHUT and KICT but will AMD as necessary. Otherwise, MVFR cigs are anticipated for all terminals except KCNU through the remainder of daylight hours before giving way to VFR cigs after sundown. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...JK/ADK