805
FXUS63 KICT 302342
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
642 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers/storms continue across southeast KS this
  afternoon

- More showers/storms possible tonight; best chances across southern
  and southeast KS

- Active pattern continues through at least the middle of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

As of 215 PM Thursday afternoon, a complex weather pattern was
ongoing across the Plains with several MCVs moving east across
eastern KS and adjacent portions of NE and OK. The most notable
MCV was located across portions of Greenwood and Elk counties.
An expansive shield of showers and thunderstorms reside on the
eastern periphery of the MCV. As the MCV drifts eastward through
the afternoon, the bulk of precipitation should progress
eastward as well. The chief concern with this activity is heavy
rainfall and localized flooding.

For tonight, our attention turns westward towards the High Plains.
An inverted surface trough axis extends from far northeast NM into
eastern CO. Two zones of convection have developed recently. The
first zone is very near the surface low in northeast NM with the
second within the upslope flow zone in southern CO. Confidence is
quite low with the evolution of convection overnight as large scale
forcing for ascent is meager. The primary maintenance for convection
overnight will be the development of MCVs from eastern CO and the
Panhandle region. Given the likelihood of at least 1 MCV to drift
into the area, will maintain PoPs across the entire area. Southern
and southeast KS stand the best potential for additional
showers/storms as the convection across the Panhandle region stands
the best potential to develop an MCV. All of that to say, the
strongest storms will be capable of dime size hail, gusty winds up
to 50 mph, and heavy rainfall.

The active pattern will continue through the weekend and possibly
into next week with weak perturbations translating across the Plains
atop a weakly to moderately unstable environment. Prior forecast
cycles suggested a pattern change towards the latter half of next
week with midlevel ridging approaching from the western CONUS.
Latest runs have backed off on the eastern progression of the ridge
axis and may continue the active pattern into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

MVFR stratus cigs are expected to develop/lower across much of
the area overnight in the southeasterly low level flow.
Scattered areas of convection developing over the high Plains
is expected to move eastward into central and south central
Kansas toward dawn and may continue to impact the area as they
drift east, mainly across southern Kansas into midday or even
into part of the afternoon on Friday.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...KED