Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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801 FXUS63 KICT 301928 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers/storms continue across southeast KS this afternoon - More showers/storms possible tonight; best chances across southern and southeast KS - Active pattern continues through at least the middle of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 As of 215 PM Thursday afternoon, a complex weather pattern was ongoing across the Plains with several MCVs moving east across eastern KS and adjacent portions of NE and OK. The most notable MCV was located across portions of Greenwood and Elk counties. An expansive shield of showers and thunderstorms reside on the eastern periphery of the MCV. As the MCV drifts eastward through the afternoon, the bulk of precipitation should progress eastward as well. The chief concern with this activity is heavy rainfall and localized flooding. For tonight, our attention turns westward towards the High Plains. An inverted surface trough axis extends from far northeast NM into eastern CO. Two zones of convection have developed recently. The first zone is very near the surface low in northeast NM with the second within the upslope flow zone in southern CO. Confidence is quite low with the evolution of convection overnight as large scale forcing for ascent is meager. The primary maintenance for convection overnight will be the development of MCVs from eastern CO and the Panhandle region. Given the likelihood of at least 1 MCV to drift into the area, will maintain PoPs across the entire area. Southern and southeast KS stand the best potential for additional showers/storms as the convection across the Panhandle region stands the best potential to develop an MCV. All of that to say, the strongest storms will be capable of dime size hail, gusty winds up to 50 mph, and heavy rainfall. The active pattern will continue through the weekend and possibly into next week with weak perturbations translating across the Plains atop a weakly to moderately unstable environment. Prior forecast cycles suggested a pattern change towards the latter half of next week with midlevel ridging approaching from the western CONUS. Latest runs have backed off on the eastern progression of the ridge axis and may continue the active pattern into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A tricky TAF period is expected over the next 24 hours with widely scattered showers/storms expected. At this point, the majority of SHRA/TSRA has moved east of I-135 and will impact CNU by 20Z into the early evening hours. The next window with the best precipitation chances arrives after 06Z across central KS and towards dawn in eastern KS. Confidence remains low with coverage of any showers/storms, therefore have deferred to a PROB30 group at all sites for now. Later outlooks will need to reevaluate if prevailing SHRA or TSRA are needed. Otherwise, wind speeds will remain in the 8-14 kt range from the south to southeast. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...BMB