905
FXUS63 KICT 310543
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1243 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers/storms continue across southeast KS this
  afternoon

- More showers/storms possible tonight; best chances across southern
  and southeast KS

- Active pattern continues through at least the middle of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

As of 215 PM Thursday afternoon, a complex weather pattern was
ongoing across the Plains with several MCVs moving east across
eastern KS and adjacent portions of NE and OK. The most notable
MCV was located across portions of Greenwood and Elk counties.
An expansive shield of showers and thunderstorms reside on the
eastern periphery of the MCV. As the MCV drifts eastward through
the afternoon, the bulk of precipitation should progress
eastward as well. The chief concern with this activity is heavy
rainfall and localized flooding.

For tonight, our attention turns westward towards the High Plains.
An inverted surface trough axis extends from far northeast NM into
eastern CO. Two zones of convection have developed recently. The
first zone is very near the surface low in northeast NM with the
second within the upslope flow zone in southern CO. Confidence is
quite low with the evolution of convection overnight as large scale
forcing for ascent is meager. The primary maintenance for convection
overnight will be the development of MCVs from eastern CO and the
Panhandle region. Given the likelihood of at least 1 MCV to drift
into the area, will maintain PoPs across the entire area. Southern
and southeast KS stand the best potential for additional
showers/storms as the convection across the Panhandle region stands
the best potential to develop an MCV. All of that to say, the
strongest storms will be capable of dime size hail, gusty winds up
to 50 mph, and heavy rainfall.

The active pattern will continue through the weekend and possibly
into next week with weak perturbations translating across the Plains
atop a weakly to moderately unstable environment. Prior forecast
cycles suggested a pattern change towards the latter half of next
week with midlevel ridging approaching from the western CONUS.
Latest runs have backed off on the eastern progression of the ridge
axis and may continue the active pattern into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

MVFR cigs will increase in coverage tonight with IFR developing
in places through the morning hours on Friday. Slow moving
showers and thunderstorms will fester across the area bringing
the potential for heavy rain and reduced flight categories.
Showers and storms may diminish as we move into the day on
Friday but low cigs and MVFR/IFR may linger through the day at
most locations. Light southeast winds will prevail through the
period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...MWM