459
FXUS62 KILM 221727
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
124 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure will bring warmer temperatures for the
mid to late week period. Passing disturbances aloft paired with
a stalled surface boundary will bring higher rain chances
starting Fri. Unsettled weather continues into the upcoming
Memorial holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Used the scheduled exp of the DFA as an early forecast update as
there are no other changes.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure centered just about over top of the area to
start the period will shift more offshore through tonight while
ridging aloft noses in from the southwest. Despite some passing
shortwaves aloft we think it will be too dry for any rainfall but
there should be a slight increase in clouds. The only hazard
expected will be fog early this morning and again tonight, which
could be dense at times (especially this morning). We have started
off with a Dense Fog Advisory for Pender and New Hanover Counties
through 9 AM where confidence is greatest in seeing significant
coverage of 1/4 mile or less visibilities. Will monitor trends
through the rest of the overnight to see if this needs to be
expanded. Highs should tick up a few more degrees today with highs
in the mid to upper 80s inland (except closer to 80 at the coast)
with lows tonight mainly in the mid 60s inland and closer to 70 at
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Biggest change from the previous forecast is expansion of precip
chances Thurs, particularly inland, due to a passing shortwave and
decent swath of moisture moving in. Otherwise, this will be our
transition into more unsettled weather with another shortwave
passing overhead Fri. More favorable conditions will lead to
increased coverage and storm chances Fri. At the surface, it looks
like the Piedmont trough may also aid in higher coverage inland.
Highs near 90 with lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues as conditions don`t change much. PWATs
1.5-2" could make for locally higher rainfall amounts here and there
with showers/storms. A cold front approaches towards the end of the
period with drier air behind it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR for the most part, the only exception will be the chance for
some MVFR fog prior to daybreak. Continuity would argue for this but
since all guidance including probabilistic output has backed off
considerably fog has be cut back considerably from the forecast. ILM
in addition to radiation fog could see lower visibility roll off of
Smith Creek in the light SE flow.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR outside morning low clouds/fog through
Thu morning and periodic showers/storms starting Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure across the area will push more
offshore with winds staying fairly light due to the weak pressure
gradient. The main wind driver will be the afternoon/evening sea
breeze but even still winds should stay about 10 kt or less. Waves
will be 2 ft or less.

Thursday through Sunday Night...SW winds 10-15 kts with seas 2-3 ft
through the period due to offshore high pressure. Shower/storm
coverage increases over the waters this weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MBB