548
FXUS62 KILM 211916
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
316 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures
this week. A stalling cold front and passing disturbances aloft
will bring rain chances starting Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIgh pressure still to our north, bringing a dewpoint-suppressing NE
wind (well, outside of the seabreeze, that is). The high will be
retreating tonight leaving behind some light and variable winds and
the stage seems set for a little fog, though vsby restrictions may
only be limited to aviation, i.e. no worse than 2 SM. As a very
light southerly breeze becomes established Wednesday the dewpoints
will increase slowly and the afternoon will warm well into the 80s
away from the beaches.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
What can be a typical late spring pattern continues to
be advertised by short and long range guidance. This is reflected in
a mid level pattern becoming more east/west oriented in time with a
similar configured frontal zone at the surface. Embedded shortwaves
and or mesoscale convective systems roll by occasionally with this
pattern. For the short term the best pops/forcing occur Friday
afternoon and evening with a more uncertain chance Thursday evening.
Temperatures on the rise throughout aided in part by a
westerly/downslope component.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Somewhat unsettled pattern continues into next week
with the same features mentioned in the short term. A drying trend
is noted very late in the period as a stronger shortwave across the
Great Lakes pushes the stationary/cold front to the south. Some
dewpoints in the 60s which by that time will have been absent from
the observations for a while be welcome.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR with clear skies and light winds that will show some
variability especially inland. Some fog will develop tonight
despite the possible formation of some mid level clouds. The fog
should tend to stay MVFR along the coast with some inland IFR,
both of which will quickly dissipate with Wednesday`s sunrise.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR outside morning low clouds/fog, mainly
through Thursday morning, and showers/storms starting Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Very light pressure gradient and the absence of
any long period swell means tranquil conditions through the period.
The weak high will initially be centered to our north, but the ridge
axis will retreat heading into Wednesday. This will turn NE (and
somewhat variable) wind to the SE by the end of the period.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Its all but summer on the calander
across the coastal waters through the period. Winds will be
southwest in a range of 10- 15 knots. Not a lot of variability
expected in seas as well with a values wobbling in a range of
2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...SHK/MBB