Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
194
FNUS52 KILM 241204
FWFILM
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
804 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today and remain
elevated Saturday. Inland temperatures will rise into the lower
90s by Sunday, and shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
ahead of a cold front. The front will move through Tuesday and
temperatures will cool down towards normal beginning Wednesday.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Low.
NCZ105>110-250415-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate,
Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach,
Southport, and Sunset Beach
804 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Today Tonight Sat
Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 50 60 50
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 4
Max/Min Temp 88 66 87
Min/Max RH (%) 56 100 55
Wind20ft/Early (mph) SW 4 SW 4 Lgt/Var
Wind20ft/Late (mph) SW 6 Lgt/Var SW 4
Precip Amount 0.44 0.27 0.18
Precip Duration 2 2 2
Precip Begin 7 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 73/0800 2000 74/0900
Dispersion Very Poor
Haines Index 3 3 4
DSI 2 2
Mixing Hgt (ft) 4500 5000
Transport Wind (mph) SW 14 W 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 63000 50000
ADI Early 36 Fair 25 Fair 29 Fair
ADI Late 51 Gen Good 5 Very Poor 51 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 8 6 9
Max LVORI Late 2 8 2
Min VSBY Early 6 Rain 6 Rain 2 Rain
Min VSBY Late 7 3 Rain 6 Rain
Turner Stability B E A
Remarks...Morning showers and thunderstorms will delay the
formation of a seabreeze today. The seabreeze should develop at
the beaches by 2 PM, moving 5-10 miles inland by 4 PM.
Brotak Profile Present.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance of
thunderstorms 50 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH
60 percent. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH
99 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 62 percent.
South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 98 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
93 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum
RH 79 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 44 percent.
North winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
NCZ087-096-099-250415-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
804 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Today Tonight Sat
Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 50 50 60
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 4
Max/Min Temp 88 66 88
Min/Max RH (%) 51 100 52
Wind20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var Lgt/Var
Wind20ft/Late (mph) W 6 Lgt/Var Lgt/Var
Precip Amount 0.39 0.20 0.18
Precip Duration 2 2 4
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 71/0800 2000 74/0900
Dispersion Very Poor
Haines Index 3 3 4
DSI 3 3
Mixing Hgt (ft) 4900 5200
Transport Wind (mph) W 13 W 9
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 63700 46800
ADI Early 51 Gen Good 32 Fair 33 Fair
ADI Late 71 Good 5 Very Poor 53 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 8 7 9
Max LVORI Late 1 9 1
Min VSBY Early 6 Rain 6 Rain 2 Rain
Min VSBY Late 6 Rain 4 Rain 6 Rain
Turner Stability B E A
Remarks...Brotak Profile Present.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. Lows
in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance of thunderstorms
60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 90s. Minimum RH 53 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent.
South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH
99 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
West winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
88 percent. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 43 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Maximum RH
77 percent. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 40 percent.
North winds around 5 mph.
$$
SCZ054>056-058-059-250415-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
Including the cities of Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews,
Georgetown, Murrells Inlet, Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris,
Green Sea, and Aynor
804 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Today Tonight Sat
Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 50 50 40
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Max/Min Temp 89 67 88
Min/Max RH (%) 51 100 56
Wind20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var SW 4 Lgt/Var
Wind20ft/Late (mph) SW 6 Lgt/Var SW 4
Precip Amount 0.37 0.26 0.26
Precip Duration 1 2 2
Precip Begin 12 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 76/0900 2000 75/0900
Dispersion Very Poor
Haines Index 4 3 3
DSI 2 3
Mixing Hgt (ft) 5800 4800
Transport Wind (mph) W 15 W 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 87000 48000
ADI Early 58 Gen Good 31 Fair 38 Fair
ADI Late 81 Good 5 Very Poor 52 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 8 6 9
Max LVORI Late 2 9 2
Min VSBY Early 7 6 Rain 5 Rain
Min VSBY Late 6 Rain 5 Rain 6 Rain
Turner Stability B E A
Remarks...The seabreeze should develop at the beaches around 11
AM, moving 2-5 miles inland by 1 PM, 5-10 miles inland by 3 PM,
and and around 15 miles inland by 5 PM.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 58 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH
100 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH
56 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 52 percent.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
93 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 45 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum
RH 77 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 42 percent.
North winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-250415-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, North Hartsville, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
804 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024
Today Tonight Sat
Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 60 50 50
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Max/Min Temp 89 66 89
Min/Max RH (%) 48 100 54
Wind20ft/Early (mph) SW 4 Lgt/Var Lgt/Var
Wind20ft/Late (mph) W 6 Lgt/Var Lgt/Var
Precip Amount 0.28 0.18 0.16
Precip Duration 2 2 2
Precip Begin 12 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 73/0800 2000 74/0900
Dispersion Very Poor
Haines Index 4 4 4
DSI 3 3
Mixing Hgt (ft) 6200 4900
Transport Wind (mph) W 16 W 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 99200 49000
ADI Early 69 Good 47 Gen Good 35 Fair
ADI Late 102 Very Good4 Very Poor 53 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 6 6 9
Max LVORI Late 1 9 1
Min VSBY Early 6 Rain 7 4 Rain
Min VSBY Late 6 Rain 5 Rain 6 Rain
Turner Stability B E A
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance of
thunderstorms 50 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower 90s.
Minimum RH 52 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent. South winds
around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH
100 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 50 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
West winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
87 percent. West winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 42 percent.
Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Maximum RH
75 percent. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 39 percent.
North winds around 5 mph.
$$
.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal. Precipitation near normal.
$$
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE BURN CATEGORY VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
NOT USED 0 0 TO 14759
0 TO 17249 1 14760 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499 2 33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749 3 45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999 4 60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER 5 112000 OR GREATER
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND DISPERSION FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
STAGNANT NEAR CALM
CALM VERY POOR 2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH POOR 5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH FAIR 9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH GOOD GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE EXCELLENT
ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.
$$
Forecaster...TRA