161
FXUS61 KILN 090733
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
333 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region
today, leading to near normal temperatures. A cooler airmass
will briefly settle into the Ohio Valley on Monday before warmer
temperatures return through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The cold front will continue to push southeast across our area
through mid morning. With weak forcing and limited moisture,
only expect a few spotty light showers along and ahead of the
front over the next few hours. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies
this this morning will give way to partly skies later today as
some drier air moves into the region. Highs today will be in the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy will drop down across the western
Great Lakes tonight and pivot across the upper Ohio Valley
through the day on Monday. This will be accompanied by a
surface trough axis, but deeper moisture remains somewhat
limited so expect the net effect will mainly be just an
increase in clouds on Monday. This will also allow for a cooler
airmass to settle into the area for Monday with daytime highs
only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Chilly start to the extended period with most locations reaching the
upper 40s Tuesday morning as high pressure persists over the Ohio
Valley. Low-level flow becomes more variable during the afternoon
with the high pressure meandering around the region. This results in
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Monday. High pressure
shifts to the east Wednesday, once again leading to more favorable
warming conditions back to above normal. No rainfall is expected for
through midweek.

Uncertainty begins to increase Thursday/Friday as the details remain
unclear regarding the shortwave trough digging into the
Midwest/Great Lakes. Both ECMWF and GFS ensembles continue to waffle
with the depth of the trough axis, suggesting lower confidence for
temperature and rainfall forecasts on those days. Both ensemble
systems still have the ridge axis eventually shifting eastward
during the weekend so the trough may only delay the onset of the
warmer conditions to early next week. The other factor that will
need to be monitored is the potential for tropical moisture sourced
from a possible disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge axis
may shift far enough to the east late in the weekend to allow for
this moisture to drift northward. So while temperatures are likely
to be above normal, the details of any particular heat risk on any
particular day may have to wait until these details become more
clear. Given the current confidence of the trough at least passing
near the region, will continue the mention of low PoPs Thursday
night into Friday. At this time, severe weather is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front will move southeast across the area through
the early morning hours. A few showers will be possible with the
front but any shower should be relatively light. Some MVFR cigs
will develop behind the front for a few hour period through
about daybreak. Drier air will then overspread the region
through the rest of the day with VFR conditions expected
through the remainder of the TAF period.

As the front moves through, winds will swing around to the
northwest. Some wind gusts to around 20 knots or so will
be possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...JGL