496
FXUS61 KILN 082332
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
732 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will keep a low threat for showers in the
forecast tonight. Dry weather can be expected Sunday through
Wednesday as high pressure settles slowly across the Ohio
Valley. After a cool start Sunday through Tuesday, temperatures
will rise back above normal on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A weakening disturbance is tracking across Kentucky. Radar
echoes have been virga for the most part. Expect mainly dry
weather to continue through tonight, though a few light showers
could occur as cloud bases fall overnight along a trough axis
extending southwest from another disturbance crossing the Great
Lakes. Cloud cover should allow relatively mild lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is forecast to continue Sunday and Sunday night. A
ridge of high pressure Sunday will be followed by a cold front
Sunday night that will contain insufficient moisture for precip
to occur. Mostly cloudy skies in the morning are expected to
become mostly sunny as the high moves in. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal with highs in the mid 70s to around 80.
Readings Sunday night are forecast to fall a few more degrees
below normal, with lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 trough is well-pronounced across the eastern CONUS to start the
work week. Heights continue to lower throughout the day on Monday
and allow for relatively cooler air to settle in. Under this
persistent northwesterly flow regime, Monday will be the coolest day
of the extended forecast period as locations near and north of I-70
could observe highs only reaching the upper 60s.

Surface high pressure will help maintain dry conditions as we head
into Tuesday. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, this H5 trough will
begin to propagate eastward and exit our fa. Temperatures will start
to trend warmer on Tuesday as the mean trough axis shifts eastward,
but relatively dry air at the surface continues as dewpoints remain
in the mid-40s to lower 50s. Subtle H5 height rises ensue on
Wednesday. Warmer and humid air will gradually build back into the
Ohio Valley region. By Thursday, the air mass will turn even hotter
as highs could climb back into the 90s for some. There is some
evidence amongst global models that a shortwave could eject through
the Great Lakes region on Friday. However, there is uncertainty if
this forcing will be able to spawn showers/storms far enough south
to reach out CWA. Otherwise, expecting that the bulk of the forecast
period to remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will continue for the early part of the period with mid
clouds lower just a bit with time. MVFR ceilings will then
spread in ahead of a cold front that will cross the region
between 06Z and 10Z. Most places will fall below 2kft. However,
MVFR ceilings will not last long. Expect them to quickly pass
through the area with a return to VFR and only a few mid clouds
by 13Z.

Winds will stay southerly until the front gets closer. Winds
will veer to the northwest with the passage of the front. Expect
sustained speeds to increase after 16Z with gusts developing.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...