879
FXUS61 KILN 291751
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will keep precipitation chances in the
forecast at times into the daytime hours on Thursday. Dry
conditions are then expected until the start of the day on
Saturday. An unsettled pattern starts to develop later in the
day on Saturday and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Water vapor and infrared satellite imagery show low pressure
spinning across northeast Ohio this morning. This low will move
into and through Pennsylvania through the day. A few showers
rotating around the low have already begun to affect the far
northern CWA (Mercer/Auglaize/Hardin counties) this morning, and
these showers will continue to pivot southeast through
lunchtime.

Further south, pockets of sunshine will help contribute to
some instability, albeit weak for this time of the year,
promoting additional shower (and eventually thunderstorm)
development by early afternoon, especially into central Ohio.
Will continue the trend of highest PoPs situated from central
Ohio into south-central Ohio through the balance of the
afternoon and early evening. Given weak mid level flow/shear, do
not expect severe weather today, however can`t rule out locally
gusty winds in any storms.

In cyclonic flow, temperatures will likely only rise into the
mid to upper 60s today, generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal
for late May.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Shower activity will decrease overnight. A few showers will be
possible during the day on Thursday, however coverage will be a
lot lower and any precipitation is expected to be light.

Continued cool conditions will be in place with lows in the 40s
expected in most locations tonight and then high temperatures on
Thursday in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For Thursday night into Friday, high pressure at the surface and
aloft will build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Skies
will be mostly clear/mostly sunny. The coolest morning will be
Friday morning will light to calm winds (lows in the 40s, but some
lower 40s possible in the usual cold spots), followed by highs in
the lower to mid 70s.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will move off to the east
Friday night into Saturday. A mid level s/wv is forecast to move
into our region during Saturday into Saturday night timeframe. This
will bring an increase in clouds, deeper moisture, and thus a chance
of showers and thunderstorms. After lows in the upper 40s to lower
50s, highs will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Lows
Saturday night will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

For Sunday into Tuesday, in a quasi-zonal like pattern, a moist
airmass will interact with episodic mid level s/wvs moving west to
east through the flow, keeping the threat for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. Under a southerly low level flow
pattern, it will continue to warm to more June levels, highs mainly
in the 80s , lows in the 60s. The humidity will be on the increase
as well, making it feel like summer has arrived on cue for early
June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Initial band of showers has cleared Columbus/Dayton and was
moving through KILN just before 18Z. Scattered showers were
also found near Cincinnati, moving to the southeast. This
activity has the potential to produce gusty winds (20 to 25 kt)
and also possibly brief visibility restrictions. Meanwhile,
expect some additional shower development behind this initial
activity, so the chance of showers will return/persist for the
Columbus/Dayton terminals into early evening. Relatively weak
instability has not allowed thunderstorm development yet. While
isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, confidence in
occurrence is too low to mention in TAFs and convection will
mainly be in the form of showers. Showers wane after dark, and
clouds should also begin to break. If this happens, patchy fog
may form. Confidence is highest at KLUK where have allowed for
IFR conditions late tonight but didn`t have the confidence in
fog formation at other terminals to include in the TAFs at this
time. Winds turn more to the northeast around 5 kt by Thursday
morning.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...BPP