Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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506 FXUS61 KILN 051737 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 137 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will occur today ahead of a cold front crossing east through the region tonight with dry air found in its wake. However, cold air aloft may combine with daytime heating to produce scattered shower activity on both Thursday and Friday afternoon in an otherwise dry pattern. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... Increasing moisture, instability, and lift ahead of a cold front will result in isolated to scattered showers this morning, with thunderstorms also possible. While an initial batch of showers is exiting east, additional showers are moving up from Central Kentucky. Stronger convection is expected this afternoon as the cold front arrives. A line of thunderstorms currently over Eastern Illinois will reach Northwest Ohio around 2 pm. Additional storms are likely to develop and push across the Dayton and Cincinnati areas by around 6 pm. From an environment holding upwards of 1000 J/KG CAPE and moderately strong winds aloft, there will be a chance for isolated damaging winds with some of the storms, though the latest HRRR keeps gusts below severe limits. Heavy downpours are also probable with PWAT over 1.5 inches and warm cloud depth over 10000 ft. Highs will be a touch lower than yesterday, ranging from near 80 in the southwest to the mid 80s in the north and northeast. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Thunderstorm activity will be ongoing this evening, with the forcing ahead of the approaching cold front increasing the potential for damaging winds. The cold front will cross in the late evening in the west, a little after midnight in the east. As it does pass, any precip will rapidly come to an end. Low temperatures will range from 60 in the west to 65 in the east with decreasing cloud cover. Upper level energy nosing into northern Ohio from a deep low pressure center in the northern Great Lakes could combine with an overturning atmosphere due to cold air aloft to spark afternoon showers, moreso in eastern and northern CWA. This scenario will need to overcome a dry lower atmosphere which is well established in the post-frontal environment. Highs will be a degree or two on either side of 80, warmest in northern Kentucky. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure offering a dry period Thursday night into the first part of Friday. The flow around a mid level low settling into the eastern Great Lakes may lead to a few showers over the far northeast. This chance will be diurnally driven Friday and Saturday afternoon with only slight chance pops. Energy rotating around the mid level low will result in a hang back trof/new low over the Great Lakes late this weekend into early next week. Considerable model solution spread is observed in the depth of this trof and how progressive this is. Deterministic GFS is more progressive than the ECMWF but the GFS ensemble shows more of a lingering trof - which is more similar to the deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble solution. Have slight chance to chance pops Sunday and Monday with a diurnal uptick during the afternoon. Have a dry forecast Tuesday as minor ridging builds into the area. Temperatures look to trend below normal Friday with highs ranging from the lower 70s to the mid 70s and then near normal Saturday and Sunday and Monday when readings are expected to top out between 75 and 80. Only a rise of a couple of degrees are expected for Tuesday with reading still close to normal. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Aviation will be impacted by a cold front and associated convection with lowered ceilings and visibilities. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms developing in moist and unstable air ahead of the front are expected at all sites. MVFR conditions are forecast with the showers and thunderstorms. Winds outside of storms may gust around 20 knots this afternoon. Kept higher thunderstorm gusts out of the forecast for now due to uncertainty of timing and location. Improvement to VFR may occur this evening as drier works in immediately behind the front. MVFR ceilings may then reform later tonight in persistent low level moisture. VFR is likely Thursday as high pressure takes over. OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio