109
FXUS61 KILN 261735
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
135 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
At least two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the region today into tonight as embedded mid level
disturbances interact with an increasingly moist and unstable
airmass ahead of low pressure and a cold front. That low
pressure system and cold front will move across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley on Monday, continuing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. A cooler airmass will then settle into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today, convective complexes extending from Illinois to
Kentucky this morning were being aided by a mid level s/wv.
These complexes will also likely result in the formation of one
or more MCVs. The s/wv and MCVs are forecast to eject east into
the middle Ohio Valley by this afternoon. Based on latest radar
and model data, this estimated timing appears to be relatively
accurate. This energy will couple with an advancing warm front
which will bring a plume of MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg,
occurring within a moderately sheared environment. As a result,
various convection allowing models develop some type of MCS
which will progress east/northeast through the area during the
afternoon. Given shear and instability, some strong to severe
storms will be possible with damaging wind and large hail being
the main severe weather threats, although a spin up tornado can
not be ruled out given the shear environment. Have gone with
categorical PoPs. It appears that once this system moves
through, there will likely be a period where pcpn chances will
decrease substantially in the wake of this system, along with
bringing a temporary decrease in overall instability due to rain
cooled air and weak subsidence. Will talk about this more in
the short term discussion. It will be humid with highs in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s under a low level southerly flow
pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Models continue to advertise a secondary mid level s/wv moving
into the region tonight. This feature will be associated with a
stronger low level jet and stronger wind fields. The key to CAMs
developing another MCS across the region will be how much of
the area can recover with SB/MLCAPES to result in severe weather
versus more convection that is elevated/decoupled from the
surface. Right now, it appears that our southern/southwestern
CWA will have the best chance to at least recover with some
SB/MLCAPEs as thunderstorms develop in the low level convergent
flow. As storms begin to share cold pools, the system will be
pushed forward east/southeast with the 0-3 km shear vector.
Damaging winds would be the main threat with isolated large
hail, as well as isolated/few tornadoes possible on on
individual bowing segments. Again have gone with likely to
categorical PoPs. The airmass will be the most moist tonight
with pwats in the 1.50 to 2.00 inch range. Thus, very heavy rain
may fall in a short period of time which would pose a
flood/flash flood threat. However, this should be limited if
storms move at a steady pace. Will mention all hazards for today
and tonight in the HWO. Pcpn is expected to taper off/diminish
in area coverage late as the complex moves east/southeast. Lows
tonight will fall into the lower to mid 60s.

On Monday, a mean mid level trough will dig east into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will push surface low pressure and
a cold front east through the region. Overall forcing appears
weak with the best forcing occurring over the eastern half which
is when the cold front will interact with some diurnal
heating/instability. It will be locally breezy with highs
ranging from the lower 70s northwest to the mid/upper 70s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A couple of upper level disturbances will keep precipitation in
the forecast at times from Monday night through the day on
Wednesday. Dry conditions are then expected from Wednesday night
through the day on Saturday. Saturday night the next chance for
precipitation will occur.

With the passage of the cold front prior to the long term time
period, temperatures will be cooler. High temperatures in the
60s and 70s are expected with lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aviation will be impacted this afternoon by a line of strong to
severe thunderstorms. Gusts over 40 knots are likely at most
sites, with visibilities down to IFR and ceilings MVFR. The
duration of the will be around 1 to 2 hours at each TAF site,
arriving at CVG and LUK near 18z, DAY and ILN 19z, reaching CMH
and LCK around 21Z. A lull in thunderstorms is forecast for
late this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are forecast for
this evening, though strength may be diminished compared to the
initial round. Later tonight as storms diminish again, MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop as the lower atmosphere
approaches saturation. VFR is likely to return to CVG LUK DAY
and ILN by 18z Monday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio