Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 261049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A large storm system will offer widespread showers across the
region this morning. Additional showers and storms will occur
during the late afternoon and evening as a cold front crosses
the area. High pressure will then build into the area for mid to
late week providing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broad mid and upper level trof remains over the Central and
Western CONUS. Embedded mid level low to open up and lift
northeast as 110KT 500MB wind max rotates around the east side
of the low. Deep low pressure will lift northeast from the Mid
MS Valley across the Western Great Lakes today with a trailing
cold front moving thru ILN/s area late from west to east late in
the day thru the evening.

A potent southerly low level jet of 65-70kt will result in
favorable lift and moisture transport across the area this
morning. Widespread showers which have encroached into the area
will overspread the entire region this morning.

Initial dry air will allow for mixing and for some of the
stronger winds to translate to the surface with wind gusts of 40
to 45 mph possible at times this morning.

This initial band of WAA pcpn will move out with a general lull
in pcpn into this afternoon.

Some breaks in the clouds will allow for mixing and the
potential for another period of enhanced wind gusts. Guidance
suggests that the strongest winds may approach advisory
criteria across ILN/s northwest counties this afternoon. Will
continue to mention this threat in special weather statement
with wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible.

A plume of lower 50s surface dewpoints combined with cooling
aloft will result in an axis of marginal instability along and
ahead of the surface cold front. Expect MUCAPE values of 100 to
300 J/kg. Expect low topped convection to develop ahead of the
front. Given the strength of the wind fields and steepening
lapse rates the potential exists for a few of the storms to
become severe with strong to damaging wind being the main
threat - generally along and west of I-75. This threat looks to
develop later in the afternoon beginning at 5 pm across Eastern
Indiana and Western Ohio and ending early this evening with the
loss of heating.

High temperatures look to range form the mid and upper 50s
northeast where clouds linger to the mid/upper 60s southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Deep low pressure to lift across the Western Great Lakes with
trailing cold front pushing east across ILN/s area this evening.
Marginal instability will support the development of low topped
convection along the front. These storms over the western
counties to weaken as they push east across the area this
evening as the weak instability wanes. The showers and any
remaining storms will decrease while the front passes across the
rest of the forecast area. Winds will also diminish overnight
as the pressure gradient relaxes after the frontal passage.

Clouds may break up for a period behind the front with
additional clouds developing overnight. Low temperatures to
range from the mid/upper 30s west to the lower/middle 40s east.

Low clouds will be in place across the area in the CAA post
frontal regime Wednesday morning. Westerly flow and surface high
pressure will bring drier air and an eventual clearing skies.

High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 40s
northwest to around 60 southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad trough axis slides through the region on Thursday with surface
high pressure dominating the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures are
near to slightly below normal during the afternoon with northwest
winds preventing any significant warm up. The broader pattern begins
to change toward the end of the week as ridging sets up over the
central and southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley on the northern
periphery of the ridging.

Warm air advection begins Thursday night as 850 mb flow becomes
westerly setting up a weak warm front over the forecast area.
Overall, precipitable water values are fairly lackluster with
initial rainfall chances looking sparse Friday through Friday night.
Better moisture advects into the region Saturday morning as a weak
shortwave ripples through the ridge. There is some uncertainty as to
how sharp the shortwave will be, lowering confidence in how far
south the warm front may shift. Highest rainfall chances are focused
across southern portions of the area Saturday night into Sunday.

Confidence is high that the ridge will build back northward, with
more appreciable moisture moving into the area ahead of a stronger
trough. This results in increasing rainfall chances Monday and
Tuesday. Based on the rainfall amounts the previous day, there could
be growing concerns for flooding potential with the heaviest rain
coming at the conclusion of the wet period. Uncertainty with regards
to convective coverage and total rainfall amounts remains high.
Despite this lower confidence, the period is likely to see above
normal precipitation for the period with modest confidence (45%)
projected from the Climate Prediction Center for days 6-10 (March 31-
April 4th).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep low pressure will lift northeast from the Mid MS Valley
across the Western Great Lakes. A potent southerly low level
jet of 65-70kt has resulted in favorable lift and moisture
transport across the area this morning. Widespread showers are
moving east across the TAF sites and will decrease in coverage
from the southwest thru mid morning.

VFR conditions will continue to deteriorate with MVFR ceilings
developing at all TAF sites early. The low level jet will
result in a period of low level wind shear. Some drier air
will allow for mixing and some of the stronger winds to
translate to the surface with wind gusts of 35 to 40 kts
possible at times this morning.

This initial band of WAA pcpn will move out with a general lull
in pcpn late morning heading into this afternoon. Expect a
general improvement to VFR as clouds lift across all but KCMH
and KLCK where MVFR conditions may linger.

Marginal instability is forecast to develop later this afternoon
with scattered thunderstorms developing on an eastward advancing
cold front. In the mixed airmass wind gusts up to 35 kts will be
possible for a period during the afternoon hours. As the front
shifts east of the area this evening the showers and
thunderstorms will end and the winds will shift more westerly
and subside to 10 kts or less.

MVFR cigs will also be possible late tonight and into Wednesday
morning. At this time have brought these cigs into KDAY which
has the greatest chance for these lower clouds.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Wednesday morning and
again on Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...AR


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