263
FXUS61 KILN 030141
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
941 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front moving into the area will washout tonight allowing
high pressure to build in. The high will keep the area
predominantly warm and dry into Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will return midweek as a cold front approaches and
moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Isolated showers are persisting across southeast portions of
our area ahead of a weak surface low moving through the mid Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile, a few spotty showers are also lingering
across northern portions of our area along a slow moving weak
frontal boundary. With weak forcing across our area, expect an
overall weakening/dissipating trend in the showers as we head
into the overnight hours as we lose the daytime instability.
This should also allow for a decreasing cloud trend through late
evening but with lingering boundary layer moisture, some areas
of stratus and fog are expected to develop later tonight into
early Monday morning, with the best chance for this for areas
along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. Lows will mainly be in
the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Surface high will build in and then slide off to the east during
the period. Meanwhile moderate amplitude mid level ridging will
also develop. This will lead to dry and warmer conditions. Any
fog and stratus in the morning will eventually break and evolve
into some scattered cumulus. The cumulus will dissipate with the
loss of heating with just some high clouds Monday night. Highs
will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level trough and cold front will start approaching the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night the northwest. Strengthening
southerly flow develops ahead of the disturbance leading to
increasing temperatures and moisture across the region. Highs are
forecast to spike into the middle to upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon
with humid conditions in place. Some instability should develop by
the afternoon which allows for afternoon/evening shower and
thunderstorm chances although coverage remains uncertain since
forcing and shear is weak. Muggy conditions and some rain chances
continue into Tuesday night due to persistent southerly flow.

The cold front and upper level trough arrives later in the day on
Wednesday. Showers and storms are expected since peak diurnal
instability appears at least moderately likely to overlap deep
moisture, shear, and forcing. The cold front will then progress to
the east Wednesday night thereby quickly reducing shower and storm
chances. Winds shift to the west behind the front and cooler air
arrives.

Below average temperatures and westerly winds persist through the
end of the week due to a long wave trough setting up over the Great
Lakes region. Multiple chances for showers will exist in this
synoptic setup as cold fronts and shortwaves rotate around the
trough axis.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Isolated shower activity should gradually decrease through the
evening hours. However, lingering low level moisture and light
flow will likely result in the development of low clouds and
fog across the area later tonight. This will lead to MVFR to IFR
cigs later tonight into early Monday morning along with IFR to
LIFR vsbys. Vsbys will begin to improve through mid to late
morning but MVFR to IFR cigs will likely linger through late
morning before improving into VFR and then scattering out
through the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...JGL