620
FXUS61 KILN 292325
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
725 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will keep a chance of showers through this
evening. High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions Thursday
through Friday. An unsettled pattern is expected from late Saturday
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure over northeast Ohio will move into western and central
Pennsylvania during the late afternoon. Multiple disturbances
rotating around the low, along with weak instability, have supported
some showers across the CWA.

One initial band of showers will move southeast across the southern
part of the CWA through 4 pm or so. Other scattered showers are
expected to develop/move southward from northern Ohio through the
late afternoon and early evening. Based on radar trends/CAM data,
continue to favor highest PoPs in the central/south-central Ohio
area.

With this activity, due to weak instability and a good deal of cloud
cover, have not seen much in the way of thunderstorm activity. Can`t
rule out isolated thunder/lightning, however much of the convection
will likely be in the form of showers. Either way, brief gusty winds
could accompany any convection.

As the low moves further away this evening, and after the sun
sets, shower activity should dissipate. In fact, most guidance
suggests clouds breaking up for clearing skies. If this happens,
there could be patchy fog. Temperatures will also be rather
cool for late May, ranging from the mid 40s north to lower 50s
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure from Canada builds southward through the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure should
provide a decent deal of sunshine on Thursday, but the air mass is
cool and below normal temperatures from the upper 60s to lower 70s
are expected. At night, decent radiational cooling with clear skies
and light winds will support lows in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A series of disturbances and fronts will keep unsettled weather over
ILN through most of the period.

Departing high pressure should keep the weather dry Friday night.
Moisture returning behind the high ahead of a short wave will bring
the threat for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.
There may be a brief dry interlude early Monday before the next
short wave and a boundary arrive from the west with more
thunderstorm chances for Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A more
potent short wave and front colliding with an unstable airmass could
bring additional thunderstorms on Wednesday.

After a cool start Friday night with lows in the low 50s,
temperatures are forecast to be near normal through Tuesday with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the low and mid 60s.
Warm advection may boost readings above normal to the mid and upper
80s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated showers will continue to pivot around a low pressure
system that will gradually exit to our northeast. Coverage in
showers will decrease overnight, but some of these showers may
still push down towards KILN/KCVG/KLUK. A stray rumble of
thunder still possible, but as instability wanes, storm
potential decreases. Thus, only have a VCSH mention in the tafs
and removed any thunder mention.

Mid level cloud deck will gradually erode tonight. This could
lead to some river valley fog in particular, which will
primarily impact KLUK. Any vsby reductions will quickly improve
shortly after sunrise on Thursday.

Winds remain below 10 kts through the period, shifting from the
NW to NNE by Thursday morning. Some cu development may be
possible on Thursday, mainly during the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Clark