862
FXUS61 KILN 200516
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
116 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected through Monday, with a chance of showers and storms
returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for
showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night with
the approach and passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler and
drier conditions are in store for the end of workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A few stray showers/storms were able to erupt across our far
north this evening, likely triggered by a subtle outflow
boundary or gravity wave. These should not last that much longer
into the night as instability slowly drops and forcing becomes
minimal.

Otherwise, a mid level ridge over the area this evening will
slowly sag southeast overnight. There will be some convective
debris spillover across the north (mainly cirrus), but that
should thin overnight. The south is expected to remain mainly
clear. Some valley fog may develop across our southern/eastern
river valleys. Tonight will be warm with lows ranging from 60
to 65 with perhaps a few upper 50s in rural/sheltered locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level ridge to remain centered just to ILN/s south
Monday/Monday night.Expect daylight hours on Monday to remain
dry with few to scattered cumulus clouds. Another warm day is in
store for the region with highs in the mid and upper 80s.

A shortwave tracks thru the Great Lakes with the ridge being
suppressed a little further south Monday night. Most models keep
the area dry but a few of the solutions allow a
shower/thunderstorm to drop into ILN/s northern counties late
Monday night. Have kept the forecast dry at this time but there
is some uncertainty.

Mild temperatures drop to lows in the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm day will be in place for Tuesday with high temperatures
in the upper 80s. There will be the potential for afternoon pop
up thunderstorms with the heating of the day. These will
dissipate during the evening leaving a brief period of dry
conditions.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the
morning hours on Wednesday. How quickly this moves out will have
an impact on how widespread the severe weather will be later in
the day. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these
thunderstorms will have the potential to be severe with damaging
winds. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out. In addition, due to
several rounds of precipitation expected, flash flooding will
also be a concern. Expect this activity to continue into the
night as a cold front works through the region. This feature
will continue to push through on Thursday and precipitation
chances will taper off.

Cooler air will be ushered into the region with highs in the
70s expected for Thursday and lows in the 50s Thursday night.
There is still quite a bit of model variation for Friday into
the weekend on how much moisture will be drawn up into the
region. Due to continued uncertainty during this time have
limited precipitation chances Friday through Sunday to no more
than the chance category.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly tranquil conditions will prevail through daybreak as the
only item of interest will be the development of some river
valley BR/FG once again at KLUK, with MVFR/IFR VSBYs possible at
the site through about 13z. Thereafter, VFR Cu around 5-6kft
will sprout about again area-wide for the afternoon before
waning in coverage past sunset. There will be some increased
cloud cover, and perhaps some ISO convection, approach parts of
WC OH toward the end of the TAF period, but this activity
should stay NW of even KDAY through 06z.

Light/VRB/calm winds will go more out of the SSW during the
daytime, staying generally 6-8kts or less through the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Thursday morning.
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities to linger into Thursday.
Additional chances for thunderstorms are possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR
NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC