920
FXUS61 KILN 041927
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
327 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A humid and unstable southerly flow ahead of low pressure will
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on Wednesday when
a cold front is forecast to cross the area from the west. Drier
weather will accompany high pressure for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Humid and unstable conditions are leading to showers forming
near the southern border of the ILN FA. These showers and a few
thunderstorms should become more numerous through early evening
as daytime instability peaks, affecting mainly southern
locations. Some storms could produce gusty winds according to
HRRR surface gusts, and heavy downpours are likely with any
storm.

Overnight, showers and storms should diminish with loss of daytime
heating. Lows in the mid and upper 60s are expected by 6 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast become widespread on
Wednesday as a cold front pushes in from the west with notable
moisture convergence and lift. There will be a low chance for
severe wind gusts from some of the storms that will be organized
by relatively potent winds aloft, while winds outside of storms
gust over 20 mph. Once the front reaches Eastern Ohio Wednesday
evening, drier air will work in and bring an end to precip
Wednesday night.

Clouds and precip should help to limit high temperatures on
Wednesday to the upper 70s to mid 80s, with lows dropping the
the low and mid 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Thursday morning, an upper low will be centered near Lake
Superior, expected to drift only very slowly east or southeast over
the course of the following day or two. Behind a cold front, there
will be deep-layer westerly flow across the Ohio Valley region,
bringing a significant drop in dewpoints that will last through the
weekend.

With the flow remaining generally progressive over the region
through the extended forecast period, some lower-end chances for
showers and storms look possible for most days. A dry forecast will
be used on Thursday, with a chance of showers and storms in the
northern CWA on Friday, as an area of forcing associated with the
upper low rotates through the region. Slightly greater chances are
in the forecast area-wide for Saturday and Sunday, but low-level
forcing appears weak, so this may be dependent on transient upper
forcing or waves in the flow -- hard to predict at this distance. In
addition, CAPE appears rather limited through this period, owing to
the lack of boundary layer moisture.

The overall pattern will turn a little more active early next week,
as another upper low is forecast to move into the area. Still seeing
a lot of timing and placement differences with this low, but it may
end up leading to greater precipitation chances on Monday and
Tuesday.

Highs will be near normal on Thursday (upper 70s to lower 80s)
before going slightly below normal for the rest of the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aviation will be affected by low pressure and associated
moisture and convection. SHRA already popping up early this
afternoon may begin to impact CVG ILN and LUK. CVG and LUK could
experience TSRA that briefly reduce visibilities. A couple more
waves of SHRA could occur at all sites during the overnight
hours as forcing increases non-diurnally ahead of the
approaching low. MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast as the lower
levels of the atmosphere near saturation. BR may reduce
visibility to IFR at LUK.

More SHRA and possibly TSRA are expected on Wednesday as the
low and a cold front move in. The SHRA along with VCTS could
prevail for a few hours in a concentrated band of lift and
moisture surrounding the front. Surface winds should gust over
20 knots outside of thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Coniglio