051
FXUS63 KILX 130206
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
906 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue tomorrow.

- A prolonged period of hot and humid conditions begins Thursday
  and continues into next week. Air temperatures will range from
  the upper 80s to middle 90s with heat indices reaching to around
  100 Sunday and Monday, posing a threat for heat-related
  illnesses.

- Storm chances (30-70%) return late Thursday afternoon into
  evening. Some of these storms could be severe with strong
  damaging winds and very large hail possible...mainly during the
  evening hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Have opted to lower overnight temperatures a couple degrees
across the region. Our 00z sounding shows a robust dry layer
extending up to about 700 mb, with a surface dewpoint around 60
degF. With light winds and mostly clear skies overnight,
radiational cooling should allow temperatures to fall into the
mid-to-lower 60s across a chunk of the area.

With data from the 00z convective-allowing models (CAMs) just now
trickling in, any updates regarding Thursday evening convection
will be noted with the overnight forecast package.

MJA

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Quiet weather is expected for most of the night, before remnants
of convection from storms in developing in the northern Miss
Valley move into the northwest parts of the CWA late tonight. The
showers and storms late tonight will continue into tomorrow
morning but should diminish around 10am, and remain in the far
north and northwest parts of the CWA. Then dry weather is expected
late tomorrow morning into afternoon. The front, currently in far
northern parts of the US, will arrive into IL tomorrow afternoon.
Models are not in agreement with timing of convection tomorrow
afternoon, but a blend puts precip arriving late tomorrow
afternoon in the far northwest parts of the CWA. The convection
will really get going and continue to move southeast into the CWA
tomorrow evening. Instability and shear look very good for severe
weather with these storms tomorrow night, with some models
indicating the severe weather threat could be large hail and
damaging winds. Highest pops will be in the north and central
parts of the CWA with only chance pops getting down to southeast
IL.

Temps will get quite warm tomorrow, reaching into the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Overnight lows in the 60s

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Dry weather will prevail into the extended forecast period with
rain chances returning Tue and Wed of next week. Temps will also
become very warm, into the 90s, starting on Sunday and continuing
into next week. Even through dwpts will be in the 60s during the
period, heat index values are still expected to reach to around
100 for Sun and Mon.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

An area of decaying thunderstorms will drop into portions of
southeast Iowa and northern Illinois overnight, leading to
increased cloud cover over our central Illinois terminals. These
will mostly be high- to mid-level clouds, meaning VFR is likely to
prevail through Thursday afternoon.

Thunderstorm activity is anticipated to develop Thursday evening
across the region. Due to uncertainty in timing and placement,
have opted to withhold PROB30 mention for thunderstorms with this
TAF cycle. This will be re-evaluated for the 06z TAF issuance.

MJA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$