Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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335 FXUS63 KILX 131041 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 541 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A prolonged period of unseasonably hot weather will continue through next week. Temperatures will range from the middle 80s to middle 90s, with the heat really ramping up Sunday into early next week as heat indices approach 100. - Storm chances (50-80%) return late this afternoon into tonight. Scattered to numerous severe storms are possible with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts in excess of 75 mph, large hail up to baseball size, and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 541 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 There is a small chance for a stray shower or storm west of the Illinois River this morning. Southwest winds become breezy later this morning with occasional gusts to 20 kts through the afternoon. A cold front will work through the area tonight, bringing a 60-80% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is high that thunderstorms will occur at or near all terminals, but timing is still a little uncertain. Because of this, a rather broad window for storms is mentioned with PROB30 groups for worsened conditions between 00-06Z. Winds shift to the north behind the front with speeds below 10 kts overnight. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Mid-level clouds will be on the rise overnight as a decaying cluster of showers moves into western Illinois. While we have added VCSH to the KPIA terminal around 12z, confidence in rain reaching KSPI/KBMI is considerably lower. Despite the clouds and rain, VFR conditions are anticipated through Thursday afternoon. Attention then turns to Thursday evening as an organized line of showers and thunderstorms develops across portions of southeast Iowa and northern Illinois, gradually spreading southward into central Illinois prior to 00z. Enough signal exists within forecast models to introduce high confidence -TSRA across the regional terminals with this TAF cycle. MJA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$