940
FXUS63 KILX 021755
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1255 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will be a dry and nice day. Highs near 80 with partly
  cloudy skies.

- Monday through Wednesday night have several rounds of showers
  and thunderstorms on deck to move through. Some strong to severe
  thunderstorms could develop Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The latest surface map shows an area of high pressure is centered
over northern Illinois with a weak nearly stationary cool front
draped along the Ohio Valley this morning. Low stratus blankets a
majority of the area with pockets of clearing already occuring in
western Illinois. Clouds should continue to gradually scatter out
some from west to east today, allowing temperatures to warm close to
seasonal normals for early June. Light radar returns noted in
eastern Illinois tied to some subtle lift over the cloud bearing
layer may trigger a few isolated sprinkles through this afternoon,
but shouldn`t amount to much precipitation.

NMA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Today, slight ridging builds over our western CWA. There is some
patchy fog across central Illinois this morning. It should dissipate
as the sun rises. This will give us a nice, calm, and pretty day to
enjoy. Highs near 80, lows in the low-to-mid 60s, and partly cloudy
skies are expected today.

The next round of rain comes Monday through late Wednesday. The
forcing for Monday into Tuesday`s event comes from a shortwave
moving overhead. Wednesday has cold front expected to pass through
the Midwest extending out of a low in Canada. Monday`s and Tuesday`s
risk for severe weather is looking a bit better now, with Tuesday
possibly more so.

MONDAY MESOSCALE DETAILS --- Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and dew
points near 70 will be in place. MUCAPE by the afternoon is more
than decent (1500-3000 J/kg). Surface to 500mb bulk shear is
basically nonexistent (0-20 knots). Mid-level lapse rates are
around 7 C/km by 21z. Plenty of bouyancy and mid level lapse rates
could support short lived strong to severe thunderstorms, with
hail as a primary threat. A wind threat exists when a storm
collapses and pushes its gust front out.

After the cold front Wednesday, there could be a couple chances for
showers and/or thunderstorms over the weekend. More details will be
unveiled as we move into the middle of the week. High temps will
hang in the 80s through most of this new week.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

MVFR level stratus continues across central Illinois early this
afternoon but will gradually lift/scatter back to VFR through the
afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing the remainder of the
period. High pressure over the region today will move east away
from the area with N/NE winds currently in place veering to the
SE/S later today and tonight. South winds are expected to begin
gusting around 20 kt late Monday morning.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$