237
FXUS63 KILX 050744
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
244 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front is passing through central Illinois this morning,
  bringing showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The front should
  exit to the east of Illinois around early afternoon.

- A mainly dry pattern sets up starting this afternoon. A small
  (10- 20% chance) opportunity for rain arrives this weekend as
  some MCS type systems pass to our south.

-  High temperatures stay in the mid to upper 70s through next
   Wednesday, before warming back up into the 80s for late next
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

As the cold front approaches from the west this morning, some
showers and thunderstorms push across central Illinois just ahead of
it. Severe threats appear to be low with these storms. These storms
will be scattered in a semi-line formation. As it works eastward,
locally heavy rainfall is possible. The activity should be out of
the area by 18/19z this early afternoon (based on the 06z HRRR),
exiting to the east into Indiana.

There is secondary weak cold front that will pass through overnight,
which could cause some showers to pop up in our far northern
counties of the CWA. However, confidence is low so only have 15-20%
POPs in the forecast for late this evening through tonight. Once
these fronts pass, a surface ridging pattern sets up to our
southwest and a upper trough sets up to our northwest, trapping
us in the middle. This will allow a mostly dry period for the
extended forecast. The next tiny chance for rain comes Saturday
and Sunday as MCS activity transverses to our south. There is a
10-20% chance that the systems move just north enough to affect
our southern portion of the CWA. As we move closer we can get a
better idea of the exact location of these southern MCS systems
and if they will directly affect us here in central and
southeastern Illinois.

Daytime temperatures following this cold front will hang around the
mid to upper 70s through next Wednesday. Then it will warm back up
into the 80s starting Wednesday afternoon. CPC shows below normal
temperatures for the 6-10 day period and near normal to above for
the 8-14 day period.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A few scattered storms remain near KBMI, but elsewhere there will
be a lull in precip for a few hours. Scattered showers and storms
return as a front moves from west to east across the area between
08-12z. Behind the front, winds turn to northwesterly and
ceilings drop to low MVFR. IFR ceilings can`t be ruled out but
appeared too spotty to include in the TAFs. By late morning, skies
return to VFR and trend towards less cloud coverage.

Erwin

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$