814
FXUS63 KILX 140449
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1149 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged period of unseasonably hot weather will continue
  through next week. Temperatures will range from the middle 80s
  to middle 90s, with the heat really ramping up Sunday into early
  next week as heat indices approach 100.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A couple updates with forecast this evening primarily due to
thunderstorm chances along with new thunderstorm watch further
east to include Champaign, Douglas, Coles and Shelby counties
until 1 am. Severe thunderstorm watch continues until 10 pm from
McLean, DeWitt, Logan and Sangamon counties west. Though severe wx
risk appears to be shifting east of Knox, Fulton, Mason and Cass
counties.

Developing MCS over northern MO and into central IL at mid evening
has been producing some severe winds and hail over parts of the IL
river valley, primarily north of Bloomington and Peoria and west
of I-55. Frequent lightning also observed in central and eastern
parts of Marshall, Woodford and McLean counties and just south of
Scott and Morgan counties. Precipitable Water (PW) values of
1.5-2 inches along and north of Taylorville to Danville line also
giving locally heavy rain threat and localized flooding possible
along with ongoing severe wx threat into early overnight over
central IL.

Latest CAMs shifting convection se during overnight as it
gradually diminishes in strength and coverage as it moves into
southeast IL during overnight. Lows overnight in the mid 60s over
the IL river valley and upper 60s from I-55 southeast with
southeast IL near 70F.

07

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Severe convection is still expected this evening and into tonight
across parts of the area. Large hail and damaging winds are still
expected with these storms as CAM models have been forecasting
since last night. Storms should develop north and west of the CWA
and then move into the CWA in the next several hours, thinking as
early as 5-6pm. Models do have convection diminishing as it moves
east and southeast, but some concern that the models are not
picking up on the cold pool that is expected to develop as the MCS
develops and then move east to southeast through the evening. The
front, along with the convection will move through the CWA tonight
and should be east and southeast of the area after midnight.
Tomorrow should be clear skies, well behind the front with lighter
winds as high pressure builds into the upper midwest. These
lighter winds and slightly cooler conditions will continue into
tomorrow night.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The main focus in the extended is the heat. Though temps will
still be on the warm side Sat, dwpts will be cool enough that
heat indicies will not be an issue. However, temps and dwpts will
increase starting on Sunday and continue into the middle of next
week. This will push HIs into the 100-105 range for those three
days. Any heat headlines will be considered later as there could
be some changes based on forecasted cloud cover. Precip chances
through the extended period will not be that high but some slight
chances do show up in some periods.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A cold front will slowly slip southward overnight, with additional
showers and thunderstorms possible along the front, mainly south
of a KPIA-KBMI line. Isolated MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible with
these storms, but otherwise VFR conditions will be expected over
the upcoming 24 hours. Winds light and variable becoming N-NE
5-10 kts.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$