Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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231 FXUS63 KILX 051745 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1245 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front is passing through central Illinois this morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The front should exit to the east of Illinois around early afternoon. - A mainly dry pattern sets up starting this afternoon. A small (10- 20% chance) opportunity for rain arrives this weekend as some MCS type systems pass to our south. - High temperatures stay in the mid to upper 70s through next Wednesday, before warming back up into the 80s for late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1014 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 15z/10am surface analysis shows a cold front approaching the I-55 corridor...with widely scattered showers/thunder lingering across the eastern half of the KILX CWA. Latest runs of the HRRR/RAP are showing re-development along the cold front across east-central Illinois this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes modestly unstable with SBCAPEs peaking at 1500-2000J/kg. Have updated PoPs to better reflect current trends and have added likely PoPs along/southeast of a Danville to Effingham line after 17z/12pm. Rain chances will end across the far E/SE by late afternoon. Further west, skies have cleared northwest of the Illinois River and this clearing will work its way eastward to the I-57 corridor by mid-afternoon. High temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Barnes && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 As the cold front approaches from the west this morning, some showers and thunderstorms push across central Illinois just ahead of it. Severe threats appear to be low with these storms. These storms will be scattered in a semi-line formation. As it works eastward, locally heavy rainfall is possible. The activity should be out of the area by 18/19z this early afternoon (based on the 06z HRRR), exiting to the east into Indiana. There is secondary weak cold front that will pass through overnight, which could cause some showers to pop up in our far northern counties of the CWA. However, confidence is low so only have 15-20% POPs in the forecast for late this evening through tonight. Once these fronts pass, a surface ridging pattern sets up to our southwest and a upper trough sets up to our northwest, trapping us in the middle. This will allow a mostly dry period for the extended forecast. The next tiny chance for rain comes Saturday and Sunday as MCS activity transverses to our south. There is a 10-20% chance that the systems move just north enough to affect our southern portion of the CWA. As we move closer we can get a better idea of the exact location of these southern MCS systems and if they will directly affect us here in central and southeastern Illinois. Daytime temperatures following this cold front will hang around the mid to upper 70s through next Wednesday. Then it will warm back up into the 80s starting Wednesday afternoon. CPC shows below normal temperatures for the 6-10 day period and near normal to above for the 8-14 day period. Copple && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Cold front is crossing the I-55 corridor early this afternoon...so have maintained VCSH at all terminals except KPIA for the next couple of hours. 1730z/1230pm satellite imagery shows MVFR cloud cover along/ahead of the frontal zone...with skies clearing along/west of the Illinois River. Based on satellite timing tools and 12z NAM/RAP forecast soundings, have scattered the low clouds at KSPI by 19z...then further east to KCMI by 22z. After that, clear skies will prevail through the evening before a secondary cold front brings a band of SCT-BKN mid-level clouds at around 9000ft late tonight into early Thursday morning. Winds will initially be SW at around 10kt ahead of the front, then will veer to W/NW after FROPA. Given tightening pressure gradient and favorable mixing conditions behind the second front, strong/gusty NW winds will develop on Thursday. Have added gusts of 20-25kt after 15z Thu accordingly. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$