535
FXUS63 KIND 070341
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1141 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, less humid Friday through Wednesday.

- Low potential for rain this weekend.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Forecast is in good shape this evening. Most cumulus have
dissipated, but a batch of them remain across the northeast forecast
area. Adjusted sky cover for this, but still expect clear or mostly
clear skies overall tonight.

Dewpoints remain low, so lowered readings for a few hours this
evening, then some recovery should occur.

Low temperatures look good, so no significant changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Pleasant conditions will continue through tomorrow with dewpoints
remaining near 50 degrees for the short term. Aloft, central Indiana
will sit on the lee side of a ridging pattern allowing largely NW
flow and the relatively cooler and drier conditions. Overnight lows
will drop to the mid to upper 50s followed by highs tomorrow from
mid 70s to near 80.

Winds are mixing down from a jet aloft which is leading to breezy
winds this afternoon. Expect gusts of up to 25 mph to continue
through around sunset and diminish some overnight. The jet will
still be over the Great Lakes region tomorrow so again anticipating
gusts of 25 to 30 mph with afternoon mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday Night Through Sunday.

Main focus Friday night will be tracking the potential for a
decaying MCS to impact southern Indiana during the late overnight
hours into early morning hours of Saturday. Synoptically, the upper
level low that brought active weather earlier in the week will have
exited the Great Lakes region into the Atlantic Coast with broad
northwesterly flow in its aftermath.  Within the flow, a weak wave
is expected to initiate a storm complex across Nebraska during the
late evening hours of Friday with the system tracking into the lower
Ohio Valley late into the overnight hours with some signs that at
least residual stratiform rain may impact the Lower Wabash Valley
towards sunrise Saturday.

Afterwards, a secondary low behind the main low pressure system will
push a cold front through the state during the overnight hours
Saturday night into Sunday with additional rain likely along with a
fresh push of cooler and less humid air that should lead to highs on
Sunday in the 70s.

Monday Through Thursday.

Robust northwesterly flow is expected then to dominate the weather
pattern through the early portions of the week with gradually lower
confidence in the forecast going towards the middle of the week as
models begin to differ on the evolution of the next low pressure
system.  Confidence is highest in the below normal temperatures
continuing to as far as Tuesday with dry weather, but towards
Wednesday and Thursday rain chances begin to slowly ramp up with
another potential closed low moving across the Great Lakes.  This
again remains very uncertain with numerous ensemble members keeping
the pressure fields more zonal with dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1140 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Impacts:

- Winds 280-310 degrees to 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots from
  15z-23z

Discussion:

Gusty NW winds late this morning and afternoon will be the main
concern to aviation due to diurnal mixing. Otherwise, a dry column
and high pressure building in from the Ozarks will provide VFR flying
conditions through the TAF period. Even the surface was much too dry
for fog with high current temperature and dew point depressions.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...MK