Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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930 FXUS63 KIND 062252 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 652 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy through the evening hours. - Cooler, less humid Friday through Wednesday. - Low potential for rain this weekend. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Pleasant conditions will continue through tomorrow with dewpoints remaining near 50 degrees for the short term. Aloft, central Indiana will sit on the lee side of a ridging pattern allowing largely NW flow and the relatively cooler and drier conditions. Overnight lows will drop to the mid to upper 50s followed by highs tomorrow from mid 70s to near 80. Winds are mixing down from a jet aloft which is leading to breezy winds this afternoon. Expect gusts of up to 25 mph to continue through around sunset and diminish some overnight. The jet will still be over the Great Lakes region tomorrow so again anticipating gusts of 25 to 30 mph with afternoon mixing. && .LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Friday Night Through Sunday. Main focus Friday night will be tracking the potential for a decaying MCS to impact southern Indiana during the late overnight hours into early morning hours of Saturday. Synoptically, the upper level low that brought active weather earlier in the week will have exited the Great Lakes region into the Atlantic Coast with broad northwesterly flow in its aftermath. Within the flow, a weak wave is expected to initiate a storm complex across Nebraska during the late evening hours of Friday with the system tracking into the lower Ohio Valley late into the overnight hours with some signs that at least residual stratiform rain may impact the Lower Wabash Valley towards sunrise Saturday. Afterwards, a secondary low behind the main low pressure system will push a cold front through the state during the overnight hours Saturday night into Sunday with additional rain likely along with a fresh push of cooler and less humid air that should lead to highs on Sunday in the 70s. Monday Through Thursday. Robust northwesterly flow is expected then to dominate the weather pattern through the early portions of the week with gradually lower confidence in the forecast going towards the middle of the week as models begin to differ on the evolution of the next low pressure system. Confidence is highest in the below normal temperatures continuing to as far as Tuesday with dry weather, but towards Wednesday and Thursday rain chances begin to slowly ramp up with another potential closed low moving across the Great Lakes. This again remains very uncertain with numerous ensemble members keeping the pressure fields more zonal with dry weather. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 652 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Impacts: - Wind gusts around 20kt early this evening, then additional gusts to around 25kt developing late Friday morning Discussion: VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. As mixing ends, gusty winds will diminish this evening. As mixing starts again on Friday, gusts up to around 25kt will develop again. Wind direction will be from 270 to 300 degrees. Some cumulus will undergo the usual diurnal cycle, diminishing early in the period and popping back up on Friday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...White AVIATION...50