066
FXUS63 KIND 070946
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
546 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy today.

- Chance of showers Saturday.

- Near-average temps through midweek, then warming trend late next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Rest of the Overnight and Today...

GOES-16 IR satellite loop and obs were showing a patch of mid clouds
dropping southeast across the Kokomo and Muncie areas in fast
northwest flow aloft. Between the northwest flow, there was
elongated low pressure from the eastern Great Lakes to northern
Alberta with embedded upper lows over the northern Great Lakes and
northern parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Meanwhile, there was a
dome of high pressure over West Texas and New Mexico. At the
surface, high pressure was centered over southwestern Missouri and
eastern Kansas while a cold front was dropping southeast across the
South. Temperatures were still in the 60s. Large temperature and dew
point depressions existed with dew points only in the middle 40s to
lower 50s. That and Hi-Res soundings suggest fog will not be an
issue early this morning.

Look for the surface high to move into the Mississippi Valley late
today. Relate subsidence and the dry column will support plenty of
sunshine. Alas, cu development progs were suggesting little to no
diurnal cu. However, Hi-res soundings are indicating deep mixing
down from 5K feet and higher, where 25+ knot winds will likely mix
down to the surface late this morning and afternoon. With mixing
easing up and eventually ceasing, there will be a big drop off of
winds by evening. DESI graphics have only a small spread between the
25th and 75th percentile of 2m temperatures with mean temperatures
supportive of afternoon highs in the upper 70s northeast to the
lower 80s southwest.

Tonight...

Although the night will start off clear as winds drop off, CAMs are
suggesting an MCS, over Nebraska and Kansas will move this way
overnight with a decent chance that dying remnants will move into
the Wabash Valley after 5 AM. Hi-RES soundings are showing the
column becoming quickly moist. That said, instability progs are
showing any elevated instability will be well west of the area, so
will only put showers in the grids over mainly southwest sections
with PoPs to 30 to 40 percent. Due to the difficulty forecasting MCS
evolution that far out, did not yet jump on better coverage per some
of the CAMs but the possibility is there.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The long range will start off with potentially active weather as a
an MCS passes through early Saturday. There are some questions
regarding this feature including where it develops and how long it
persists. There are reasons to believe that the MCS will decay as it
heads into Indiana. First, the low-level jet feeding it is
positioned more to our SW and as the system progresses eastward it
may outrun its source of buoyant air. If anything the system may
experience preferential growth on its southwesterly flank. An area
of stratiform rain could still pass over large portions of the CWA
in this scenario. Second, poor lapse rates and weakening upper-level
flow may cause the downshear portions of the MCS to decay with
eastward extent. Guidance has trended slightly faster bringing a
warm front across the state Saturday morning, which is in part fed
by the low-level jet mentioned above. Should this boundary end up
further north there may be a bit more buoyancy for the potential MCS
to work with. Still, given all the negatives mentioned above the MCS
would likely be in a decaying state regardless.

Beyond that, guidance generally shows northwesterly flow aloft and
east coast troughing through about midweek. Precip chances remain
low as dry northerly flow dominates. A wave embedded in the broader
upper flow may pass by Monday or Tuesday but the bulk of guidance
remains mostly dry. Only the GFS shows a more wrapped up low with
greater precip chances...but this is an outlier. Will carry slight
chance PoPs Monday into Tuesday, however. Temperatures look to be
near average through much of the coming week again due to northerly
flow.

Towards the end of next week, and next weekend, ensemble guidance is
showing an increasingly coherent signal for ridging over the eastern
CONUS. Ensemble 500mb jet stream lies well to our north across
Canada. Such a pattern would favor increasingly warm and humid
conditions with fewer chances for organized precipitation (as storm
systems generally pass to our north). Air mass convection would
still be possible depending the magnitude and axis of best moisture
return.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 546 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Impacts:

- Winds 280-310 degrees to near 15 knots and gusts 21 to 27 knots
from 15z-23z

Discussion:

Gusty NW winds late this morning and afternoon will be the main
concern to aviation due to diurnal mixing. Otherwise, a dry column
and high pressure building in from the Ozarks will provide VFR
flying conditions through the TAF period, although would not rule
out a shower at KHUF and KBMG after 09z Saturday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...MK