Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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309 FXUS63 KIND 012237 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 637 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight - Warmer next week with periodic thunderstorm chances. The best chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Radar was showing widespread showers lifting north across all but the very far eastern parts of central Indiana within an area of isentropic lift on the 305K surface. Hi-Res soundings and condensation pressure deficits suggest far eastern sections will also soon saturate down soon supporting 80% plus PoPs for the remainder of the afternoon. An upper trough will move to the east of the area tonight and a ridge will build in in its wake. In addition, a surface system will move across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. As this occurs, the showers will decrease in coverage and end from west to east with perhaps a few morning showers lingering over far southeastern sections. Hi-Res soundings showing a saturated boundary overnight and weak surface pressure gradient supports light to calm winds. This will likely lead to low stratus and or fog. Soundings and ridging suggest there will be breaks in the cloud cover Sunday afternoon which should lead to temperatures bouncing back to the upper 70s and lower 80s. Meanwhile, the low clouds and fog suggest temperatures will not fall much further than the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)... Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Sunday Night Through Tuesday. Quiet weather is expected for Sunday night into Monday with a brief period of upper level ridging ahead of a fairly active week of showers and thunderstorms. Late Sunday night an MCS is expected to initiate across the Central Plains and push into Iowa and Missouri towards Monday morning but this complex will dissipate before even arriving into Illinois but convective debris from the system is expected to reach the western counties Monday morning. An outflow boundary associated with this system may push as far as Indiana but that will be dependent on how far the MCS is able to push into Iowa. This scenario would allow for some convective initiation late Monday, but this looks to be the unlikely scenario with storms most likely staying to the west of the forecast area. The next round of thunderstorms is expected to initiate across Kansas Monday night with this system having a better chance but still unlikely to impact portions of western Indiana. Wednesday Through Saturday. Broad troughing is expected towards the middle and and of the week with weather being heavily influenced by residual outflow boundaries from the thunderstorms earlier in the week which keeps confidence in precipitation timing and chances fairly low. Towards the end of the week there is better model agreement in a much stronger upper level trough across the Great Lakes region bringing more robust northwesterly flow at the surface and aloft which will bring cooler conditions into the weekend. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 637 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Impacts: - Poor flying conditions tonight and Sunday morning - A few rumbles of thunder are possible this evening - VFR conditions developing Sunday afternoon Discussion: The combination of an upper level wave moving through the region and a trailing surface low across Illinois has led to widespread showers over central Indiana early this evening. Coverage will diminish over the next few hours but scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will linger into the overnight. Of greater impact to aviators will be a continued lowering of ceilings to near 500ft overnight with patchy fog as well. Steady southeast winds this evening will become light and variable late tonight. Isolated to scattered showers will linger into Sunday morning with clouds remaining trapped beneath a shallow inversion. Ceilings will improve only slowly before mixing out into a VFR cu field during the afternoon. Winds will transition to N/NW as a high pressure ridge expands across the region by late day. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...White AVIATION...Ryan