072
FXUS63 KIWX 101832
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
232 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Getting warmer in the coming days with highs in the upper 80s to
  near 90 Wednesday and Thursday.

- The next chance for rain and storms arrives Thursday afternoon
  and evening. Severe weather is possible, with the main threat
  being damaging wind gusts.

- Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices pushing
  100 to 105 degrees this weekend through at least the middle of
  next week! Can`t rule out a few low chances for showers and
  storms but this timeframe looks mainly dry as of now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Take advantage of the cooler day today, as it is likely the last day
with highs in the 60s for awhile! Strong northerly winds have
allowed for CAA to keep temperatures at bay today. This will not be
in the case for the rest of the week, however, as winds will shift
to come from the south and temperatures really heat up by the end of
the week! Temperatures (and humidity) should get progressively
higher each day this week. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90
Wednesday and Thursday.

The main focus of the week aside from the approaching heat will be
the return of rain and storms chances Thursday afternoon and
evening. Severe weather is possible Thursday, with SPC putting much
of our area in a 15% Risk (equivalent to a Slight Risk - level 2 of
5). As an area of low pressure lifts northward through the Central
Plains, the attendant warm front will lift through our area
overnight Wednesday into early Thursday. Highs near 90 degrees and
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will yield an increasingly unstable
environment on Thursday. Simultaneously, a cold front will drop
southeast through the upper Midwest Thursday, brining the
chance for thunderstorm development ahead of it. Model agreement
is lacking on exact timing and placement of the front; the GFS
has a slightly faster solution that favors severe weather
occurring during the afternoon and evening while the ECMWF has
the timing later Thursday with a decoupled diurnal/kinematic
setup. The GFS suggests MLCAPE of ~1500 J/kg by Thursday
afternoon with 35 to 40 kts of 0-6 km shear orthogonal to the
southeastward moving frontal boundary. In addition, GFS
soundings show DCAPE of ~1000 J/kg, which would promote a
favorable environment for damaging wind gusts to occur. We will
continue to monitor this chance for severe weather so check back
for updates in the coming days!

Hot and humid weather is on its way! Surface high pressure and upper
level ridging will build across much of the eastern CONUS, setting
the stage for a `heat dome` to set up. Highs will be in the low to
mid 90s with heat indices pushing 100 to 105 degrees this weekend
through at least the middle of next week! Overnight lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s will offer little to no relief from the heat.
Can`t rule out a few low chances for showers and storms but this
timeframe looks mainly dry as of now. This is a typical summertime
pattern for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions where any
clusters of storms that do develop tend to ride around the periphery
of the heat dome. For those who enjoy the heat of summer, you won`t
have to wait too much longer!


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

After cold air advection brought MVFR CIGs to the area this morning,
the main moisture axis behind the cold front shifts southeast
and subsidence occurs behind a departing shortwave allowing
clouds to break up and MVFR conditions moderated back to VFR
just before this taf period. We`ll still have gusty winds up to
around 25 kts at SBN and more like 20 kts at FWA on north-
northwest winds into late afternoon/evening time today. Dry air
continuing to move in allows for mostly clear skies through the
rest of the forecast period, but the airmass will be too dry for
fog formation Tuesday AM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Roller