Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
094 FXUS63 KIWX 062324 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 724 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous swim conditions to persist through Friday at Berrien county beaches. - Gusty afternoon/early evening winds Friday both over land and water. - Seasonably cool temperatures into the weekend trending warmer next week. - More days of dry versus wet conditions for the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 All things considered, for being under the influence of a rather active NW upper level flow, much of the period will be generally quiet with a few chances for showers but no larger systems. CAA will persist for the next couple of days with steep lapse rates resulting in mixing of somewhat higher wind fields aloft this afternoon. A similar setup is expected once again late Fri morning into the early evening hours. While not overly a big concern over land, the NW winds will bring dangerous conditions for those wandering into the waters of Lake Michigan, especially in Berrien county, with beach related headlines persisting through tomorrow and possibly into the evening hours. A stronger disturbance and associated weak sfc low will track towards the region on Saturday. While the air mass aloft (500 mb) won`t be overly cool for this time of year, mid level lapse rates of 6 C/KM or more are still expected with the arrival of this feature resulting in mainly diurnally driven showers. Overall QPF will be minimal given limited moisture to work with. Slight chc to chc pops are in place Sat afternoon and evening to address the chances, but by no means will this be an all day rain. While upper level heights will increase and flatten somewhat any impacts in terms of allowing warmer temperatures will be minimized as the flow remains active with successive troughs keeping a somewhat cooler setup in place. Each wave will have small chances for some showers, but the greatest coverage will coincide with afternoon/evening timing, something difficult to time out several days in advance. In addition, med range models have massive differences in timing and strength of these features. As a result, some periodic small chances for showers exist due to models blends through the rest of the period with maybe better chances by the end before heights begin to increase and we trend back above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 724 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Upper low remains just north of the area and will support ample midlevel clouds but low levels remain dry and will keep conditions VFR through the period. Winds will relax overnight but gusts of 25-30 kts are expected again on Friday given tight gradient and deep mixing. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM CDT Friday through Friday afternoon for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for MIZ177- 277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...AGD