Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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216 FXUS63 KIWX 091907 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rather cool by June standards Monday with highs in the 60s (coolest near the lake). - Temperatures slowly warm through the upcoming week, with well above normal conditions arriving this weekend. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Overall a rather tranquil several days in store for the area as high pressure dominates. A cold front will drop south tonight into Monday morning, bringing a reinforcing shot of colder air as well as increasing low clouds that may very well persist through much of Monday as strong CAA settles in. Previous highs were rather warm compared to much of the guidance with many of the models only having highs in the 60s and maybe upper 50s along the lake. Collaboration has resulted in lowering of highs, but also trying to account for the possibilty of clearing in the afternoon and the June sun offsetting some of the impacts of the CAA. It may be a bit breezy in some areas as well, especially closer to the lake. The cold air will be short lived as ridging moves in with temperatures closer to normal Tuesday followed by above normal (well into the 80s) for the rest of the period. A weak front will bring a chance of showers and maybe a few storms, but overall confidence is low given deeper moisture will still reside well south of the region. Trends still suggest that the upper level ridge will strengthen further this weekend into next week with highs in the upper 80s to possibly low 90s settling in. Dewpoints will remain in check initially with heat indices a few degrees warmer than forecasted highs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The passage of a cold frontal boundary brought times of low visibility and stratus this morning. We`ll continue to be in a cold advection regime behind this front through the forecast period. One additional cold frontal boundary moves through Monday in a similar time to this morning`s and could allow for another period of what appears to be more of a stratus-conducive environment with sustained winds forecast to be greater than 5kts Monday morning. Early projections look like MVFR CIGs will be in play with near 30 percent chances on the SREF at SBN and to some extent at FWA as well. There`s also some question how long these can continue into the daytime Monday after today`s dissipated around sunrise. Aviation guidance still wants to hold onto the CIGs later than that. Wind gusts could increase again Monday midday, but may not be as strong as they are expected to be into this evening with a weaker low level jet. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 9 PM CDT this evening through Monday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 PM EDT this evening through Monday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Roller