Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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514 FXUS64 KJAN 290611 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 111 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 928 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Water vapor/RAP/00Z observations indicate synoptic large scale troughing across the Mid-West to Great Lakes & gradually pulling off to the northeast. Sfc analysis indicates the front is now situated along the Gulf Coast, with any earlier convection gone. Northwesterly flow persist, but there has been some moistening over the last 24 hours, while some progged decrease aloft into the overnight hours. Clouds will thin overnight before increased moist ascent from shortwave moves into the ArkLaTex. This will help high cirrus to spread back over the region near or just after daybreak. Light winds will aid in another seasonable night with lows in the mid-upper 60s, with cool spots in the Hwy 25 corridor potentially 63-65 degree F range. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Through Wednesday: Most deep convection is bypassing the forecast area well to the west and south this afternoon as noted in the previous discussion, and have gone ahead and removed the messaging for any severe threat in the Natchez area for the remainder of today. There could be some light rain and perhaps a lightning strike or two that impacts far southern portions of NE LA until early evening, but otherwise most of the area will be rain and storm free as we go through tonight. For Wednesday, we may see great threat for storms, especially over western portions of the area. Most guidance show that a significant mid level perturbation will cross the area in the aftn/evening, and this will likely increase moisture transport and eventual storm development. Mid/upper level flow and lapse rates should be sufficient for a few intense storms to organize, and SPC has included western portions of the area in a marginal risk. Have gone ahead and messaged this in the HWO graphics. If some of the more pronounced guidance verifies, this risk area may be expanded and increased some, but confidence won`t be great until we can actually realize the moisture increase. /EC/ Wednesday night through Tuesday: The long term will be dominated by continuous chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms almost everyday of the period. Active westerlies over the Southern Plains will extend into our forecast area as a surface boundary remains to our west/southwest. As rounds of shortwave energy interact with sufficient instability and a surface boundary, we can expect to see mostly sub-severe storms crossing the area. By Friday and Saturday, a stronger shortwave is expected to move through the area bringing increased chances for showers and storms areawide. Sunday through Tuesday temperatures and moisture will begin to increase as low-level flow increases bringing additional chances for afternoon showers and storms across the area. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 All TAF sites are currently VFR tonight and expect this to continue through the period. There will be scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, which may bring brief MVFR/IFR conditions to sites. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 88 67 85 67 / 40 30 40 20 Meridian 90 66 86 66 / 20 20 30 20 Vicksburg 88 68 84 69 / 40 40 40 20 Hattiesburg 93 69 89 69 / 30 20 30 20 Natchez 88 67 84 68 / 40 30 50 20 Greenville 87 68 82 68 / 40 40 40 10 Greenwood 88 66 82 66 / 40 30 30 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15