Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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870 FXUS64 KJAN 031807 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 107 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The near term forecast is rather challenging as we have potential for a significant MCS to approach our area from the west later today resulting in an increased convective wind threat and heavy rainfall. What complicates the forecast early on is that the convective system from last night overturned the airmass to our west, and a good bit of modification still needs to take place for the forecast scenario to play out. Near term guidance insist on this happening as southerly low level flow increases moisture transport ahead of an mesoscale convective vortex in the Ozark region, and latest satellite/obs trends are suggesting the trends are on track with the forecast, so will maintain messaging for the slight severe risk over the western half of the area. Over MS, the airmass is relatively undisturbed and will support scattered, disorganized shower/storm development through the afternoon ahead of any potential MCS, and the forecast handles this well. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Through tonight: An MCS which resulted in severe weather across parts of TX and western LA has weakened considerably overnight as it pushed into central MS and south LA. Though this feature will continue pushing past our area without much fanfare, we remain in an active, progressive weather pattern, and the next disturbance awaits not far behind. Scattered shower activity remains possible through this morning as the current MCV continues east, but considerable cloud debris should limit instability enough to prevent more vigorous development. Then attention will turn upstream to another MCS, percolating over western KS early this morning. While there is decent model agreement on this system organizing and moving into our area later this afternoon or this evening, due to the unpredictability of mesoscale features, confidence in timing and location specifics is not high. Boundary interactions throughout the day could easily impact the evolution of this feature. Nevertheless, for now the highest confidence in severe potential is along and west of I-55 late this afternoon into this evening. Storms should generally wane as they get farther east later tonight as instability decreases, but there is still potential for an MCS to make it all the way eastward across the state. There could also be a few scattered stronger storms this afternoon ahead of this complex given the moist and unstable environment that should be in place. Damaging wind gusts, particularly with composite outflows along an MCS, will be the primarily concern with any severe storms, but hail up to quarter size is also possible. /DL/ Tuesday through early next week... High pressure over the eastern CONUS will keep a steady stream of moisture into the area, supportive of daily rain and storm chances for much of the extended period. A period of enhanced activity appears possible later this week as midlevel flow is ample for organization. Overlapping a moist boundary layer, with PWAT generally in excess of 1.7 inches, several rounds of storms appear possible. DCAPE in the 800 to 1300 j/kg range will support downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. There is still a bit of uncertainty regarding timing and evolution of these systems as a lot depends on mesoscale features. Around Thursday night into Friday, a cold front pushes south and along and ahead of it, rain and storm chances will continue. In the wake of the cold front, drier air will shift focus further south for the weekend. There is a chance that the front stalls out and given the lingering moisture reservoir, this may serve as a focus for storms around the Fri/Sat period, however this is only speculation at this time. Will adjust forecast as needed if confidence increases. This weekend, high pressure shifts east, relaxing flow aloft and diminishing low level return flow. Still, moisture remains elevated given lack of airmass change and isolated storms will be possible. Into early next week, the moisture axis shifts west, which should shift the bulk of activity towards Texas./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Heating of warm and humid air will fuel a considerable amount of mainly afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA activity as we go through the afternoon and into the evening. Confidence is low concerning specific timing, but it appears an organized thunderstorm system may move in toward western sites by early evening and potentially impact the I-55 corridor prior to midnight. Ahead of the system, isolated/sct convecive precip should develop. As we go into early Tue morning, the primary concerns will be for LIFR/IFR category stratus development. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 89 71 89 73 / 60 30 30 10 Meridian 89 69 90 71 / 50 30 40 10 Vicksburg 89 71 90 73 / 60 30 20 10 Hattiesburg 89 72 90 73 / 50 20 40 10 Natchez 88 71 89 72 / 50 20 20 10 Greenville 86 72 89 74 / 50 40 30 10 Greenwood 87 71 89 73 / 60 40 30 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/SAS20/EC