Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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259 FXUS64 KJAN 261740 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1240 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A broken stratus deck persists across much of the area this morning, though it is showing signs of eroding and should mostly lift by midday. Otherwise, the near term forecast is on track with warm and dry conditions through the daytime hours today as a stout midlevel cap evident on the 12z sounding is expected to persist. With 12z guidance still coming in, we are currently assessing severe potential with an incoming line of storms late tonight which will then weaken into the early Monday morning hours and potential redevelopment during the daytime Monday. Initial thinking is the Monday threat may be overdone due to major question marks over whether redevelopment will occur in our area. We`ll have more details this afternoon. /DL/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 451 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Today and Tonight: Warm and breezy today followed by a chance of severe storms across the northern half of the CWA tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a <1000mb low centered over the Plains and a >1014mb high ridging west across the northern Gulf. The surface ridge will hang tough while the surface low tracks northeast through tonight. The pressure gradient between the two features will result in a gusty south wind today that will lead to warmer than normal temperatures again and help maintain low level moisture across our CWA. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a 591dam ridge across old Mexico and over the central Gulf. In addition several shortwaves were noted across the western and central CONUS that will help support the surface low tracking to the northeast through tonight. The surface low will drop a trailing cold front into our northwest most zones by sunrise Monday. Vigorous convection is expected to fire along and ahead of the approaching cold front. This will bring the threat of severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts up to 70mph and hail up to golf ball size to our CWA generally along and north of Highway 82. Isolated severe storms will be possible south of Highway 82 to the Interstate 20 corridor. Today will be dry but rain chances will increase during the evening from the north. The severe storm potential looks to begin in the northwest by 9pm and continue south to I-20 before waining toward sunrise. /22/ Memorial Day through the weekend... Early morning model guidance continues to highlight a 996 mb sfc low propagating northeast towards the Great Lakes Region. At the same time, a shortwave trough, located on the southern peripheral of the sfc low will help push a frontal boundary across our forecast area. Rain chances will remain low through Memorial Day morning with a few lingering showers and storms possible across the Pine Belt. Weather conditions will remain generally quiet during this timeframe as skies beginning to clear later in the day, with afternoon highs peaking into the low 90s across our forecast area. Later in the afternoon/evening, the boundary will shift south towards the Hwy 84 corridor as moisture content continues to build from the Gulf. This, combined with sufficient daytime heating will assist in the development of strong to severe thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi. Local environmental parameters indicate a favorable environment for severe storms, with SBCAPE up 3000 J/kg, steep mid- level lapse rates, and PWATs up to 1.70 in. Because of this a few modifications were made to the severe HWO graphics for Memorial Day as forecast confidence as start to increase slightly. The Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) remains the same. A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) has been introduced and covers most of our CWA. Damaging winds up to 70 mph and hail up to golf ball size will be the primary hazards with these storms. Confidence still remains low in regards to the exact timing of these storms. We will continue to closely monitor trends and will provide updates to the timing graphic as we get closer to Memorial Day. In addition to the severe potential for Memorial Day afternoon/evening, heat indices could reach 105-110 degrees especially for areas south of the I-20 corridor which will put many residents under the threat of dangerous heat stress. A heat stress graphic will likely be introduced heading into Memorial Day. Heat trends will continued to be monitored closely. Come Tuesday, global guidance show the cold front pushing further south towards the Gulf Coast. This will allow for a 1022 mb to build into the area from the northwest as the trough axis propagates east towards the Carolinas and the sfc low continues to shift northeast across the Upper East Coast and into southern Canada. By Wednesday, dry and cool conditions will occur across the southeast US as northwest flow aloft will help limit heating from the Gulf. Isolated showers and storms will make a brief return to the area on Thursday and Friday with quiet conditions through the weekend. Ridging aloft will help keep weather conditions quiet heading into the next work week. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions prevail across the region this afternoon. A cold front will approaching the area overnight with a line or broken line of TS, with some potential for 50 kt gusts mainly around GLH/GWO/GTR. With this line, there will be a wind shift to the W then NW by Monday morning. Low clouds will increase overnight with MVFR across most of the area to locally IFR ceilings and patchy MVFR fog possible in south MS. VFR conditions are expected to return by mid to late Monday morning and drier air moves into the area. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 93 68 91 / 40 10 10 10 Meridian 74 94 67 92 / 40 20 10 10 Vicksburg 74 93 69 92 / 40 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 75 95 71 93 / 30 30 10 20 Natchez 72 93 69 92 / 30 10 10 20 Greenville 74 92 69 91 / 50 0 10 10 Greenwood 72 91 67 91 / 60 10 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /