Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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511 FXUS64 KJAN 311933 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 233 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Tonight through Saturday: Periods of showers and storms will continue through Saturday. A few storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out but it seems as if that threat is diminishing and the damaging wind threat and locally heavy rainfall will be the main issues with these waves of showers and storms. We still maintain a marginal to slight risk of severe weather over portions of the forecast area through tonight. Saturday night through Thursday: Active weather including the potential for severe weather and flash flooding will be possible over most of the period. By Saturday evening the shortwave trough axis will be east of Mississippi taking the most vigorous convection with it. Our region will still have west to northwest flow aloft and there is at least a couple models hinting at an mcs moving back into our southwest during the evening. This would bring a threat of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Locally heavy rain would also likely accompany the system. During the period Friday night through Sunday morning there will be the potential for two to four inches of rain in a short amount of time. This would result in localized flash flooding. Sunday wl still have a warm moist airmass in place. Daytime heating looks to combine with another subtle shortwave to enhance convection over the region leading to scattered to numerous coverage going into Sunday evening. This convection is expected to have a distinct diurnal trend to it and will wain with the loss of daytime heating. We will still have a warm moist airmass over our region come Monday. Monday yet another shortwave trough is expected to move across the region during the heat of the day and lead to at least scattered coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening storms. Tuesday convection is expected to be less and more confined to our northern zones as mid level ridging looks to strengthen some over the southern portions of our CWA. There remain difference in the models with Wednesday into Thursday but consensus suggests a northern stream disturbance will be strong enough to help send a cold front into our region that would lead to a greater coverage of convection over our CWA Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. /22/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Expect mixed cigs across the forecast area this afternoon as a decaying MCV continues to slowly track across the region. We expect more shower and thunderstorm development later this evening and overnight. We will have to amend TAFs as the storms develop as timing still remains an uncertainty. Saturday conditions should improve in the late morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 84 69 84 / 70 80 30 50 Meridian 67 82 67 84 / 60 90 40 60 Vicksburg 68 85 70 87 / 80 80 30 50 Hattiesburg 70 85 70 87 / 60 90 30 60 Natchez 67 85 69 87 / 60 80 30 50 Greenville 70 85 70 85 / 90 60 30 40 Greenwood 67 84 70 85 / 80 80 30 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ MJH/22/MJH