563
FXUS64 KJAN 030840
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
340 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Through tonight: An MCS which resulted in severe weather across
parts of TX and western LA has weakened considerably overnight as
it pushed into central MS and south LA. Though this feature will
continue pushing past our area without much fanfare, we remain in
an active, progressive weather pattern, and the next disturbance
awaits not far behind. Scattered shower activity remains possible
through this morning as the current MCV continues east, but
considerable cloud debris should limit instability enough to
prevent more vigorous development. Then attention will turn
upstream to another MCS, percolating over western KS early this
morning. While there is decent model agreement on this system
organizing and moving into our area later this afternoon or this
evening, due to the unpredictability of mesoscale features,
confidence in timing and location specifics is not high. Boundary
interactions throughout the day could easily impact the evolution
of this feature. Nevertheless, for now the highest confidence in
severe potential is along and west of I-55 late this afternoon
into this evening. Storms should generally wane as they get
farther east later tonight as instability decreases, but there is
still potential for an MCS to make it all the way eastward across
the state. There could also be a few scattered stronger storms
this afternoon ahead of this complex given the moist and unstable
environment that should be in place. Damaging wind gusts,
particularly with composite outflows along an MCS, will be the
primarily concern with any severe storms, but hail up to quarter
size is also possible. /DL/

Tuesday through early next week...

High pressure over the eastern CONUS will keep a steady stream of
moisture into the area, supportive of daily rain and storm
chances for much of the extended period. A period of enhanced
activity appears possible later this week as midlevel flow is
ample for organization. Overlapping a moist boundary layer, with
PWAT generally in excess of 1.7 inches, several rounds of storms
appear possible. DCAPE in the 800 to 1300 j/kg range will support
downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. There is still a bit of
uncertainty regarding timing and evolution of these systems as a
lot depends on mesoscale features.

Around Thursday night into Friday, a cold front pushes south and
along and ahead of it, rain and storm chances will continue. In
the wake of the cold front, drier air will shift focus further
south for the weekend. There is a chance that the front stalls out
and given the lingering moisture reservoir, this may serve as a
focus for storms around the Fri/Sat period, however this is only
speculation at this time. Will adjust forecast as needed if
confidence increases. This weekend, high pressure shifts east,
relaxing flow aloft and diminishing low level return flow. Still,
moisture remains elevated given lack of airmass change and
isolated storms will be possible. Into early next week, the
moisture axis shifts west, which should shift the bulk of activity
towards Texas./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the majority of the area, but a
weakening band of SHRA and a few TS are approaching the MS River
early this morning and may result in brief categorical reductions
around HEZ. Otherwise, MVFR to locally IFR stratus are expected to
redevelop through the early morning hours, scattering and lifting
to VFR by late morning/midday. Additional development of SHRA and
TS is expected later in the day tomorrow potentially continuing
into the evening. It is too soon to pin down specific timing at
each site, but periodic reductions will be possible with
this convective activity. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  71  89  73 /  60  30  30  10
Meridian      89  69  90  71 /  50  30  40  10
Vicksburg     89  71  90  73 /  60  30  20  10
Hattiesburg   89  72  90  73 /  60  20  40  10
Natchez       88  71  89  72 /  60  20  20  10
Greenville    86  72  89  74 /  60  40  30  10
Greenwood     87  71  89  73 /  50  40  30  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/SAS