739
FXUS64 KJAN 212002
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
302 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Rain chances should hold off in our forecast area until probably
tomorrow afternoon. Drier air associated with a surface high
pressure centered over the Southeast CONUS and ridge axis aloft
will keep conditions fairly quiet until then. The high pressure
and increasing low-level humidity overnight will lead to a chance
for fog centered on the Pine Belt in southeast MS early Wednesday
morning. HREF probabilities are in the 30-50% range for areas
south of Interstate 20, but forecast soundings also suggest it
could be more of a brief fog threat before fog lifts to a low
stratus deck. Will highlight with a Limited threat area for patchy
dense fog at this point, and we`ll monitor trends into the
evening. We should see high temps in the upper 80s to near 90
degree range again tomorrow, especially south of any possible
afternoon showers or storms. At this time, guidance has trended a
little farther southeast with the potential storms moving into our
area tomorrow, which makes sense as a moisture and instability
axis tilts east to cover AR and portions of northern LA and MS.
There is a Marginal Risk from far northeast LA into northeast MS,
but trends support a Slight Risk for better chances of severe
storms into northwest MS. Generally expect the time frame of
around 3 PM tomorrow afternoon to 3 AM Thursday morning to have
potential severe storms as a wave or two of storms are triggered
to our west and spread through the instability axis. Have tweaked
the current hazardous weather outlook graphics accordingly. /NF/

Thursday through Tuesday:

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms again on Thursday, with
a similar synoptic setup in place. Realistically, the chance for
strong to severe storms resulting from daytime and evening
convection will extend through the weekend. Above-normal heights
associated with the upper-level ridge will retreat southward over
the Gulf of Mexico as broad longwave troughing dominates the
western and central CONUS. Disturbances rippling out of this wave
across the country will provide the support for this mainly
diurnal activity to organize and progress eastward each day. Any
particular afternoon, areas around the US Highway 82 corridor
have the greatest chances for storms through this time, though I
wouldn`t rule out the chance anywhere. A southern jet stream over
the region should add the flow needed for possible organized wind
threat with any deep convection. Then as we move from Monday into
Tuesday, a cold front should sweep southeast through the region.
This front will also carry a threat for strong to severe storms,
but it`s too far out to have confidence on the timing right now.
Before the front arrives, Sunday and Monday look to be HOT. The
possibility of 105-110 heat index values will put residents under
the threat of dangerous heat stress. Will likely need graphics if
it appears that widespread rain will hold off those days. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 10Z. Patchy to
dense BR/FG will be possible for PIB/HBG from 10Z-14Z, in addition
to IFR cigs. VFR conditions should prevail after 14z. Winds are
expected to remain southerly from 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph
through 0z. /AJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  88  69  90 /   0  10  10  10
Meridian      66  90  67  90 /   0   0  10   0
Vicksburg     69  89  71  90 /   0  20  20  10
Hattiesburg   67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       68  88  69  90 /   0  10  10   0
Greenville    73  89  72  88 /  10  40  50  20
Greenwood     71  89  70  89 /   0  20  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/AJ