Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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049 FXUS64 KJAN 310351 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1051 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 An MCV developed earlier this evening from convection to our west, with the center pivoting over northern Louisiana at this hour. A QLCS pushing out and trailing south from the MCV is now working its way into central and northeast Louisiana/southwest Mississippi. Mesoanalysis shows a gradient of MLCAPE angling down toward the southeast Louisiana coastline from the apex of the current bow. Current coldest cloud tops and lightning activity levels are trending south of Natchez, and this indicates the general corridor of greatest threat for damaging wind gusts or brief tornado threat over the next few hours. The portions of the line farther north should still hold together to bring better shower and thunderstorm chances than previous forecast. Have boosted POPs into the morning based on current trends and latest guidance. Instability drops off farther north, but some strong gusts and heavy downpours are still expected. Overall short- term guidance is still playing catchup, so some amount of extrapolation from the present situation is required. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Tonight and Friday: Showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish as the evening progresses. An isolated shower can`t be rule out during the overnight hours. Otherwise, skies are expected to be partly cloudy with overnight temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. On Friday, a stalled frontal boundary is expected to transition into a warm front and begin to lift northward from the Gulf coast, bringing moist/unstable air into the CWA. Once the aforementioned warm front lifts back through the area, a few shortwave disturbances is expected to traverse across the region. As a result, shower and thunderstorm potential will continue across the ArkLaMiss region, with best chances for severe weather and flash flooding during the afternoon and into the evening hours. A "Slight" risk for severe weather will be possible west of I-55; elsewhere; a "Marginal" risk for severe weather is in place. Damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado are the primary hazards of concern and HWO graphic will be updated to reflect the hazards. As PW values near 1.5 inches, flash flooding concerns will have to be monitored as 2-4 inches of rain will be possible. /SW/ Friday night through Wednesday night: Active weather including the potential for severe weather and flash flooding will be possible over most of the period. Come Friday evening a nearly stacked low will be moving from the central Plains to the mid Mississippi valley. Convection associated with this system will be ongoing from the afternoon and pose a threat of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes over the northwest portions of our CWA into the evening. The tornado threat will be ending during the evening while the damaging wind threat will continue into Saturday morning. Locally heavy rain will also accompany the storms. Saturday the low will track northeast across the Ohio valley while the trailing cold front stalls across the northwest portions of our CWA. Daytime heating of our warm moist airmass combined with subtle shortwaves and the stalled front will maintain a threat of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail to the size of quarters Saturday afternoon and evening. The stalled front will remain a focus for convection through Sunday. During Friday night through Sunday there will be the potential for two to four inches of rain in a short amount of time. This would result in localized flash flooding. We will still have a warm moist airmass over our region come Monday. There will be the potential for diurnally driven convection along with another approaching cold front that will result in the potential for heavy rain and strong to isolated severe storms each day. /22/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 746 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at the TAF sites through the period, however a round or two of showers and thunderstorms before 00Z Saturday could cause brief periods of variable conditions at a few sites. Winds will increase to around 10-15 kts after 15Z on Friday, with gusts up to around 20-25 kts. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 67 88 69 83 / 40 40 30 80 Meridian 64 91 69 84 / 10 20 20 80 Vicksburg 69 87 68 83 / 70 70 40 80 Hattiesburg 66 91 71 87 / 10 20 20 80 Natchez 69 86 69 84 / 100 80 30 80 Greenville 70 86 70 83 / 60 70 60 80 Greenwood 69 88 68 82 / 40 40 50 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SW/22/NF