Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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823 FXUS64 KJAN 240922 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 422 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Today and Tonight: A 995 mb low pressure system continues to slowly push northeast towards North Dakota this morning. As the sfc low continues to slowly push northward towards North Dakota, a 1012 mb sfc high will develop across the western CONUS before slowly tracking east towards the Central Plains later this afternoon. This sfc high will help push a frontal boundary over KS/MO/AR areas and keep storm chances low across central MS through the afternoon. Went ahead and made a few modifications to the forecast and lowered PoP chances for areas south of the Hwy 82 corridor (5-10%). Areas along and north of Hwy 82 could see some scattered showers and storms around this timeframe. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, a shortwave trough over east Texas interacting with the aforementioned frontal boundary will trigger additional rounds of strong to severe storms along and north of the Hwy 82 corridor. These storms have the potential to spread southeast toward our forecast area later this evening. There are sill some discrepancies regarding the timing of this system, however it appears that the best chance for any severe potential will start around 7PM this evening. The Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms has been extended further east into this evening for areas in far southeast AR, far northeast LA, and northern MS. The Marginal Risk has been extended further south to cover this potential round of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, however hail up to golf ball size along with a few tornadoes will also be possible. /CR/ Saturday through Thursday: Saturday morning the cold front will be stalled across northern Mississippi. Surface ridging will be nosing west across the northern Gulf of Mexico while our region will continue to reside on the northern periphery of a fairly stout mid level ridge across old Mexico and the western Gulf. This will help maintain and warm moist airmass over our CWA. Models appear a little faster this run but a shortwave topping the mid level ridge will combine with daytime heating, our moist airmass and the stalled front to develop storms across the northern half of our CWA. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts will be possible during the day and mainly across our Highway 82 corridor. This activity looks to end by evening as the shortwave shifts east over Alabama. Saturday night and Sunday are currently expected to be dry for our CWA but another shortwave tracking across the Plains Saturday night will help develop a surface low and associated cold front that will be nearing the mid Mississippi valley by noon Sunday. The old stalled front will return north of our CWA during the day as a warm front. Our whole CWA will be in the warm sector Sunday evening when the cold front will be approaching from the northwest. Storms developing along and just ahead of the cold front will have the potential of producing severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts, hail to golf ball size and perhaps a brief tornado or two over our northern zones with lower threats south to Interstate 20 Sunday night. By sunrise Monday morning the potential for severe storms and rain chances will have ended but rain chances will return Monday afternoon and continue into the evening until the cold front clears the CWA and a surface high builds in from the northwest resulting in cooler and drier air back over our CWA. By Tuesday afternoon, dry weather along with cooler temperatures are expected across the region. Ridging surface and aloft look to build over the region by mid week and then dominate through Thursday night. /22/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR ceilings and conditions will occur across all sites to start off the TAF period. Current radar scans show some scattered showers pushing east across the Pine Belt. Some redevelopment will be possible at GLH, GWO, and GTR starting around 08Z Friday. Confidence remains too low at other TAF sites to introduce this TAF cycle. Some low MVFR stratus is possible overnight between 08Z-15Z Friday, with some potential IFR stratus across southeast TAF sites. Conditions will start to improve to VFR flight categories after 15Z Friday as ceilings start to improve. Light southerly winds, generally around 10mph & gusts up to 20mph, are psbl through Friday afternoon. By Friday evening, wind gusts will be near 15 mph. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 72 92 73 / 10 10 10 0 Meridian 91 71 93 72 / 20 20 20 0 Vicksburg 91 71 92 73 / 10 20 10 0 Hattiesburg 92 72 95 72 / 10 10 0 0 Natchez 91 72 92 72 / 10 10 10 0 Greenville 90 72 90 75 / 20 40 30 0 Greenwood 90 71 90 74 / 30 40 30 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/22/CR