830
FXUS64 KJAN 101628
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Rest of today...

Less active & tampered down heat is expected through the aftn,
with a weak front expected to provide some focus/impetus for some
aftn convection across the southern half of the area. Morning
RAP/water vapor analysis indicates longwave trough centered across
the Great Lakes to northeast states while upper low over west TX
is trapped under mid-level ridging centered across the Four
Corners to Intermountain West. At the sfc, a weak front is
analyzed south of I-20 into the Hwy 84 corridor, with cooler
thermo profiles/drier air < 1 inch PWs across the Mid-South while
some moisture pooling >1.5 inches along & south of the I-20
corridor. There should be enough convergence for some late aftn
showers to isolated-scattered storms in the far southern Hwy 84
to I-59 corridors. Morning 12Z sounding modification for the Hwy
84 corridor indicate lower end, slight chance of microburst
potential, but copious DCAPE of >1000-1300 J/kg could support an
isolated stronger storm in the far southern portions of Hwy 84,
I-59 to Hwy 98 corridors. Main adjustments were to lower PoPs to
confine this farther southward & confine thunderstorm probs
closer to southern areas in line convective allowing model (CAM)
guidance. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Today and Tonight:

As a weak cold front continues southward today, the most noticeable
difference will be drier air spreading southward by the afternoon
and evening. For areas south of Interstate 20, it will still be a
fairly hot day with afternoon highs in the lower 90s and heat index
values approaching 100 in some areas. For areas north of the
Interstate, the slightly cooler and drier air should see those heat
index values cap out around 85-90 degrees. Pooled moisture and
instability along the cold front will also support better precip
chances closer to the Gulf Coast under daytime heating, though an
isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out elsewhere in the
area. Rain chances will taper off during the evening as drier air
continues to overspread the area. Overnight lows will once again
drop into the 60s areawide, and would not entirely be surprised to
see an upper 50s reading or two around the US Highway 82
corridor. Temps around sunset should be falling into the 70s at
most locations making for a nice summer evening. /NF/

Tuesday Through Sunday:

Upper level troughing will dominate the long term period as high
pressure moves southeast and becomes entrenched over the southern
states. Northerly flow will continue as drier cooler air advects
into the region behind the front. Rain chances have trended south
of the area through a majority of the week as the disturbance in
the Gulf of Mexico and the upper level low moving out of the
southern plains are showing significantly slower timing, and
impacts to our area won`t be until late week into the weekend.
Tuesday- Wednesday, high temperatures will dip slightly into the
mid to high 80s for most of the area with regions of the Pine Belt
remaining in the low 90s. By Thursday we will see a warming trend
as southerly flow from the aforementioned disturbance in the Gulf
increases. PoPs for Thursday will remain unlikely as storm
coverage will remain confined to our south. By Friday-Saturday
could see the warmest temperatures of the year thus far with temps
reaching the upper 90s in most areas. Beginning Friday we will
also start to see increasing chances for isolated to scattered
rain and storms for the southern portions of the CWA through this
weekend. No heat related products are being advertised at the
moment for Thursday-Saturday but are likely and will be re-
evaluated on a day to day basis. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period, though some brief MVFR ceilings are possible through
15Z today as a cold front moves southward. Isolated to scattered
SHRA or TSRA are possible generally north of Interstate 20 before
18Z and south of Interstate 20 between 18Z to 00Z. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  64  85  63 /  20   0   0   0
Meridian      87  62  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     86  65  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   92  67  89  65 /  30  20  10   0
Natchez       87  67  86  64 /  20  10   0   0
Greenville    86  64  85  63 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     86  62  85  61 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/KP/NF